I don't think he said he was wishing for it, although a person might construe the comment that way.

My experience is wishing doesn't do anything, other than waste my time.

He does introduce a valid point. Unusual things can happen (even ones that would not be as large as a volcano in our back yard) both to the upside and downside in grain prices. Right now the market seems to have a large crop built into its pricing model. There could be unusual circumstances to make the price go either way. But in my opinion, where the market already has a large crop built into its pricing, the likelihood of a scare to the upside in price is more probable than to the downside.

We have to be getting close to cost of production for many producers and that likely means fewer acres of corn in the future should the price be driven a lot lower by an unexpected event. Farmers will plant a loosing crop for a couple years, hoping for outsize yields to offset the lower price, but eventually they get the message.

The crop is not in the bin yet, but ours is getting within about a month of starting, and it looks above average.

John