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There's NO WAY we're gonna see 400+ Carryout on Beanies..!!
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JonSCKs
Posted 7/25/2014 12:38 (#3985233)
Subject: There's NO WAY we're gonna see 400+ Carryout on Beanies..!!


Okay.. first off.. got to keep my bullish to bearish post ratio at that 9 to 1 balanced level.. and I've been pretty bearish here lately..  golly.. 1..2..3..4.. or more posts.. so.. I'm slipping..

but NO MORE baby!!

Got the HORNS on Now.. It's good to be the BULL!!!

Bean Carry out for 14/15 was printed on paper as 415... a 3x increase over this years..  lol  They think we are suckers or something...??

So here goes..

First off we got a big increase in acres..8.3 myn total but half of that came from the fringe.. North Dakota alone LED the way with a 1.5 MYN acre increase.. Also about 8% of the acreage is double cropped..(it's in the report for the doubters..) 8% x 84 =6.72 myn acres PROBABLY a RECORD.. and THOSE ACRES do NOT do trend.. usually.. and this year.. that is LATE.. my d/c beanies are 5" tall right now.. and as long as it doesn't freeze before... ???  Nov 15th.. I probably have a (chuckle) pretty full yield potential..  Only bad thing is LAST year the growing season stopped Oct 25th.. and some years as early as September...   "Whoopsie."

So couple those two facts together.. and I DO NOT see how we hit trendline yields.. not to mention the wind is blowing 30+ mph out here.. we're headed to 103 with heat index's of 105 to 110.. don't know about the rest of ya'll but "that's hot."

Furthermore, Prevented Planting is already reportedly around 2.5'ish myn with NOT EVERYONE reporting yet.. Mizzou and such..  (anyone got the skinny yet?)

So.. here we go..

WASDE last report was.. http://usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

84.8 myn planted - .75 pp x .9917 harvested (assuming my d/c makes it that far..) = 83.35 myn harvested acres

Again with the growth of production in the fringe.. and a GOOD yield in the Dakota's is like..???  what 38.. 40?  vs USDA's national average trendline at like I believe they used 45.2...  SO trimming that back to something more realistic.. 44.5 yields a crop of 3,713 plus carry in of 130..  (assuming NASS does go back and CORRECT the -69 residual ALL on crop size last year.. minus a bump of 10 on exports.. see below.)

Gives us 3,841 total supply minus crush of (hmmm.. we're over $2.00 lower than this time LAST YEAR.. so exports of beans.. meal.. useage of Oil are gonna be big..)  crush of 1,760 exports (already starting off well.. right at 100 myn bushel LAST WEEK alone.. with probably more to come..) of 1,735 seed and residual of 111 brings Carry out in at... 237.0  on the money.

So as the MARKET RALLIES from the REALIZATION that THERE's NO WAY we'll get ANYWHERE's CLOSE to 415 down to...??? 237... There's a GOOD SIZED POP coming in the beanies..

Look at South America.. they quit selling 4 weeks ago.. "Ain't touching this.."  We're CLOSER to China and yet WE'RE CHEAPER..

"say WHAT?!?" 

"WHY?"

CHEAPER than Brazil...??  yipper.. by at least $.30 per bushel before freight.  And this is off the August.. which has a $1.30 invert... + .30 = $1.60 CASH INVERT BUILT in...

WHO WOULD SELL THAT?!?

I say we tack that right back on.. and hold out for something north of... $12.50 new crop..  a $1.50 in the Novies.. and I'm putting my $$$ where my post is.. I OWN IT!!

$10.81

Let's go...

edit add: filled at $10.78.



Edited by JonSCKs 7/25/2014 12:58
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