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Boone Co. Iowa | There is going to be so much crop this fall, it is going to be crazy. I was out in corn fields yesterday. Lots of ears, i.e. high population, and lots of kernels on the ears....Grain fill period will just be adding to the burdensome supplies. At this point in time, in my view, we are going to spend a year or three building back the demand. Jon, I think that you mentioned cattle going to $300 at one point, I think that $200 will be the new norm and we will see $300 in a 12 to 18 month period.
Really, we are going to have to see some low prices for a long period of time before folks are able to invest and develop the infrastructure (that means animals and more ethanol plants) to use up the corn and bean crops. Funds were here in commodities for a while, they will soon be gone for a while I think.
I see prices trending down, down down into fall harvest. Maybe a move in the August time frame (seems like I am always on vacation, during the Colorado cycling classic) we will have an emergency scare, i.e. we ain't going to make it until this new crop arrives, etc.) I think will be last selling opportunity until after Thanksgiving.
The crop is a monster. Sorry for the folks that don't have it, but it sounds like Illinois is better than Iowa, and I'm still mowing my lawn. Last year, my lawn had been dead for a month during RAGBRAI. Still a really healthy green. Tiles are running. Pulled weeds out of the soybeans yesterday. Pulled like nothing, i.e. soil is not that dry at all.
Maybe these crops don't have a great root system developed. Corn is low, but it will be these last 50 cents over the next 2 months that will hurt growers the most. Beans have potential to move based upon the August rains. I figure that there is a dollar up or down move depending on the August weather. Maybe we will have sudden death problem. Maybe aphids.
I found some lodging in corn on corn, and lots of beans were stubby/short (and some where nice and tall), but overall this crop will be a monster. Tile running going into August means if it stays cool, corn will be a monster crop. Sorry for talking it up, but those are the current facts on the ground. When these crop tours get going, we are going to be hearing about some massive, unheard of totals (yields) and going to push dec. corn down down down.
My 2 cents. | |
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What's pushing the market this morning.
