Formerly NE North Dakota, now NW MN | No worries.
I shouldn't even give my opinion because wheat marketing for me has felt like I somehow stumbled into a cage match between a bear and a bull, so I don't know if I'm being gored to mauled....either way it hurts.
My read on wheat right now though, is that we bounced off our support line, so likely the "trend" or upward channel will continue for awhile. Right now we're talking winter wheat concerns, but I think in two weeks we are going to be postulating spring wheat planted acres. If soybeans continue to rally, hrsw will have to compete with that too. Planting intentions report has already shown that North Dakota is willing to forsake everything else to plant soybeans if nothing else makes sense. I've talked to quite a few soybean seed sales people, and I get the impression that there's a seed supply to plant an obscene number of soy acres if ND really wanted too. Now, in truth, I doubt that'll happen. I think the extra million soy acres in ND that USDA guessed seems like a reasonable enough number, but MW will have to respect those realities just the same.
FWIW, I sold a few contracts new crop on friday. When sept. went through 7.20 I figured it was lights out. Vlad, however, continues to do his utmost to blow up my hedge account. I exited that hedge on monday because I feel the Ukraine thing presents to much uncertainty, and it's not particularly comfortable being short the thunderdome when there's a bunch of uncertainty out there. |
Wheat resistance
