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Mining CEO discuss future of gold market
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John Burns
Posted 11/24/2012 12:28 (#2714190 - in reply to #2714086)
Subject: Re: Mining CEO discuss future of gold market



Pittsburg, Kansas

My problem is, to buy more of his company I have to sell something else I own (I stay fully invested all the time). So what do I sell? That is always my problem. To own more of something I have to sell something I already have that I also like (or at least liket at the time I bought it). My luck seems to be just as soon as I sell something, it doubles in price. So I'm always reluctant to sell and second guess my original research and reason for buying.

Casey and some of the other advisers are big on when something doubles sell half of it and take a "free ride", meaning that the shares you have left you have no cost left in them because the profit from the other half paid for the whole lot. From my perspective I completely disagree with that idea. I understand their logic and from the perspective of a newsletter writer it makes all the sense in the world. By taking some profits off the table is is easy for them to claim "wins" and wins are what sell newsletters. People tend to have short investing memories and the fact that the writer made the person a lot of money earlier will be lost if there are not a few "wins" along the way to  keep the investor interested in keeping the subscription going.

But looking at my own portfolio over the years, it is the handful of the really spectacular "blow out the lights" stocks that have really added the "juice" to my returns. Had I followed the "free ride" logic I'm satisfied my overall returns would have been lower because I would have sold half the shares of some of my best gaining stocks. For every ten stocks I buy, being realistic with myself, I have no way of knowing which one is going to do well. I can study everything and more likely than not the one that I think will be the "no brainer, can't miss" will not be the one that shoots out the lights. No one can predict when something like a mine collapse or other catastrophe will happen. So over the years I have chosen not to second guess myself. When I buy I'm in for the long haul.

Has it worked? Well it is not uncommon for me to have a few stocks every year that go to nothing. Zero, zip, nada. Belly up. Funny thing is one of my very best years of returns I have ever had came in the same year that I had the most stocks go belly up. Go figure. I just have to do my homework, place my bets, and let fate happen. I'm just not good enough at analysis to tell which one is going to be the right one and which one is the bad one and sure as I second guess my original decision and sell something, it turns around and shoots out the lights.

So that is my dilemma. In order to buy more I have to sell something. I do sell, but usually years after the initial purchase. Usually when the market is telling me I'm in the wrong asset class. I do have some MUX as well as MCEEF. Will probably have it for at least another five years or so.

John

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