AgTalk Home
AgTalk Home
Search Forums | Classifieds | Skins | Language
You are logged in as a guest. ( logon | register )

Watched Dust bowl on public TV last night
View previous thread :: View next thread
   Forums List -> Market TalkMessage format
 
JonSCKs
Posted 11/19/2012 09:44 (#2705703 - in reply to #2705670)
Subject: Rainfall and outlook.


Rainfall here as reported by the local weather station:

2007 33.98"
2008 31"
2009 28.89"
2010 21.79"
2011 11.33"
2012 16.76" to date.

Our longterm average is something like 28"

We are actually drier this fall than this time last fall..

S/O/N/D precip 2011: 7.17"
S/O/N precip 2012" 2.71"

Not much relief in sight.. outlook is dry through at least next spring. Fall crop acreage is expected to decline here.

Most of the wheat is up and rooted in.. but some is still very tenuous.. I looked at a field yesterday that was maybe 40% emerged and what was up looked pretty spindly. By some measures we are dryer than what was recorded during the dust bowl period. However, we employ much better farming practices including no-still, strip-till and minimum-till. We had one "dusty" day this fall.. but so far.. only the one.

However, given the outlook.. we are not in a hurry to move any grain inventory until the outlook changes.

We are told that 2013 is forecast to see "more of the same" with a gradual improvement. Guys are going to be a lot more conservative this year than last in their expectations for seeing the drought break.. most are convinced that this is a multi year event.. similar to the 50's and the 30's.. instead of just one dry year like 1988/89.

We may have a couple more years to go yet in this pattern. I'm looking for cheaper input prices.. and drawing on our banked fertility.. soil probes are not quite as high as last year but still above average.. given the outlook.. we may not need much added fertility.
Top of the page Bottom of the page


Jump to forum :
Search this forum
Printer friendly version
E-mail a link to this thread

(Delete cookies)