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Panhandle of Ne. | Good question that I don't think anybody has a clear cut answer to. There are to many variables. I believe that we will continue to see cycles. We are quite obviously in an up cycle. Why is that? Well, weather has been the trump card over the last several years, it's not because not enough corn/beans weren't planted to create a huge surplus. Now bring into the equation more land being put into production worldwide, decent weather and all of a sudden we have more than a huge surplus. That is when we will go into a down cycle and it is by all means coming. Hopefully, our down cycles won't be as drastic as our current up cycle has been. That would be catastrophic for the ag. industry and the economy overall. Throw into the equation global warming. There are many good arguments for and against it. What if it is true? Should that be the case, all bets are off. I've always been in the camp that it is just a weather cycle we are going through but we continue to set all kinds of weather records, seems like every year either wet/hot/dry that I'm not so sure anymore.
Another thought. In 2000, I bought a new JD 8410 for 100k. That same HP tractor today is 250k or 2.5 times higher than 10-12 years ago. Using these figures, another 10-12 years that tractor will be 625k, another 10-12 years 1,562,500 dollars, another 10-12 years, or 30-36 years from now, that tractor will be 3,906,250 dollars. Is this possible? I don't have a clue, but I never thought they would go up that much in the last decade but they did. Should this be the case, what would the price of corn/beans have to be? I wouldn't hazard a guess. This is just one example. You can plug anything like combines etc in there and see what I'm talking about.
Bottom line is nobody has a clue. I still believe in the old saying "the cure for high prices is high prices", that being said, mother nature bats last.
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- RE: Your long term, say 30 years, projections on ag's future - iseedit : 11/19/2012 08:51
- Re: Your long term, say 30 years, projections on ag's future - jonas grumby : 11/19/2012 09:10
- RE: Your long term, say 30 years, projections on ag's future - zmracing : 11/19/2012 09:45
- RE: Your long term, say 30 years, projections on ag's future - kagen : 11/19/2012 11:00
- Re: Your long term, say 30 years, projections on ag's future - Alberta Farmer : 11/19/2012 15:13
- Re: Your long term, say 30 years, projections on ag's future - FromtheFlats : 11/19/2012 19:27
- RE: Your long term, say 30 years, projections on ag's future - dieseldoc : 11/20/2012 16:30
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Your long term, say 30 years, projections on ag's future
