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Theodore, Saskatchewan | I was just thinking about this yesterday when someone said that with these prices they would likely plant all the corn they could next year...... I will consider the fact that if it remains dry this winter a lot of consideration will go to bean yields versus corn yields during the drought last summer and the price spread will be a very minor part of the decision come planting time.
I do not see a seasonal trend that would be reliable, but it does appear that most years beans will gain on corn around the new year.
The first chart is a weekly because I wanted to include a longer time frame and do not typically use the spread charts for trading, just general market planning. I used a fib retracement on the chart to give you an idea of 50% between 07 low and 09 high.
If you go back 20 years the average is 2.5. A high in 2004 of 3.9 ($28 beans today...wow)
I also included a spread chart for Nov beans 2013 / Dec corn 2013. At 2.0 - 2.1 prices certainly favor planting corn next year.
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Attachments ---------------- Fullscreen capture 17112012 104920 PM.jpg (84KB - 58 downloads) Fullscreen capture 17112012 110703 PM.jpg (72KB - 57 downloads)
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