Oswald No-Till Farm Cleghorn, IA | Ray,
I don't hang in the coffee group so don't keep up with the local gossip. I likely know more from my friends here.
My analysis of crop prospects in our area is as follows:
1- Corn height and general appearance is "normal" with some rust on leaves. Bug levels are relatively low. I have NOT spent time in fields doing pollination checks as it has been so hot out there and I have been out snagging stray weeds in beans. What little I have looked at in the corn would suggest decent pollination NOTE: I have not looked at a lot of ears or all my hybrids. Corn rolling is evident with the heat but I have seen worse. "Light" soils are not doing well. The expensive land is showing its value in soil depth and quality this year. Fortunately, the "heavy/wet" soils didn't completely drown out or lose most of the nitrogen this year compared to some other years. The dry start helped those heavy soils with decent planting conditions compared to years where they are mudded in.
Simply put, our corn has potential for decent yield but there is no good way to estimate how thin the root is that is providing moisture to the plants and how low the tank is getting. One does not have to drive many miles to see the cliff trail has loose rocks and casualties.
2- On soybeans, the plants are a bit shorter than "normal" due to heat and moisture stress. I don't like plants that are too vegetative so don't consider that a big negative. BUT, we need moisture to keep the plants growing enough to have large enough plants to capitalize on rain (should it materialize) during fill period. Flowers are there and pods are trying to form but with limited moisture I suspect many will abort. With the heat, there is that grey cast to the fields.
Many on here have experienced seeing the crops fall off the cliff when the tank runs out. A rain here, a rain there, a good soaking, etc. could have a huge yield difference as fundamentally our area has maintained decent potential so far. The silage cutters and 200/65 bu/ac corn/bean yield monitor readings may not be that many miles (rods) apart.
My personal management strategy has/will be to reduce plant stress as much as possible regarding bugs/disease. I had about 1/2 the corn sprayed with a Headline/generic capture (mites/bugs) in hopes of reducing plant stress on those early maturing hybrids we have moved to since 2009.
I will do similar with the soybeans. My biggest concern is the potential for spider mites and "hope" to keep them in check as many on crop talk note that fungicide (or wrong insecticide) application could make them worse. Bugkiller talks about the spider mite "bomb" of Lorsban and Bifenthrin. I intend to have ammo at the ready.
Even with this approach, I know it might all be in vain should the water tank run out.
This year has me more uneasy than normal.... it is probably that I am now old enough to know what all bad can happen and have seen the photos from my fellow Ag Talkers.
I write this in public forum not because I wish to put "decent" crop prospects in the face of those who have a failed crop. I am doing this because the market and political forces in play with this weather event are really concerning. Should the corn/soy crop "fail" nearly everywhere (including my farm) in the large acre highly productive soil states, the reset/damage on market channels and relationships is hard to imagine. The future value of that economic damage may be worse then the drought itself. That's scary.
Sorry to ramble.
Edited by notilltom 7/20/2012 11:54
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oh boy... if you sold some corn right now...
