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| Thanks for the reply, JP.
Yeah - I can sure see a difference on the financial statements of those who have done a good job taking the approach that these years of excess are good to do the seasonals; having an approach that these are years to just get through; and just generally ducking for cover whenever possible. I have also seen a lot of guys sort of puking it up on sub $3 corn b/c they were not proactive sellers. Especially hurts when the grain has been stored at the local COOP/E-Plant with commercial drying costs, storage fees, and interest from the bank to carry the grain loans. Many of those really could not afford the hit. Compare that scenario with someone who pre-sold for cash at $3.75 or so and it really becomes the difference between making it or not for some.
We have encouraged ed a few land sales, although we gratefully have not been forced to foreclose on anyone. Neither of these two propositions are pleasant, especially when you can look at the differing mindsets and say "only if" to the one with poor marketing results. Nobody knows what the high or the low for next year will be, but it has not been too hard to know what were some profitable selling points to get through. I have seen a lot of smiles on the guys who did so. Does not matter much right now to guy who pre-sold cash Soybeans at $9.25 only to see it go all the way to $10. At least he will not be sitting there at financial statement time with unsold Beans that will go on his financial statement today at a cash price of $7.50 and is still costing him money each and everyday. Same story on Corn.
Until I see this scenario change in a hard manner - I am likely "tainted" in your eyes b/c I have to deal with and live the consequences of those not taking action to protect themselves. These years have not been about hitting home-runs. They are about survival.
I know on my smaller farm side that I have benefited a lot from practicing what I am am saying.
One other scary thing to me is that the window for making decent sales has been shrinking each of the last three years. 95M potential corn acres with low exports for Beans this coming does make me concerned.
I ALWAYS appreciate your posts, charts and insights. Keep them coming. | |
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Does it all come down to Soybean Exports?
