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Market now trading 182 corn yield and 50 soy
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J P
Posted 6/26/2018 09:35 (#6835079 - in reply to #6834490)
Subject: RE: Market now trading 182 corn yield and 50 soy


Clay SEIA - 6/25/2018 22:51

I have no desire to comment on national yield at this point, but it's a pretty safe bet that the powerhouse corn growing areas of Iowa north of Highway 30 and the southern couple tiers of counties in MN have already been damaged enough that trendline at best is in play for them, and most likely below.  There are exceptions, like the hillier terrain around Carroll and points west or Dubuque on the other side- but the correlation of a wet June with yields that are a little disappointing on a whole bunch of acres up there is very strong.

30 days of no rain will make more corn for most of those guys than 30 days of way too much. 



I would disagree with your assertion. First a "trend line yield" in alot of that area would be a disaster for most. Yields the last 4 years have been parabolic so anything back to near 180 would be considered a disaster. I know a bunch of whiners..LOL. That's the truth though. Some areas got too much sure, and it hurt some no doubt. I know we have as well. But there are lots of areas in that corridor that the rain has saved the crop, far NE Iowa for example. Alot of that area got slammed into less than stellar circumstances late May and early June. These rains are the best thing that could have happened and while area is behind normal, stands counts appear to be stellar. We are in that area - north of HWY 30- as well. More rain that we would like absolutely, and I have traveled a large portion of that area, and I think writing off the crop for trend line or below at this point is a big mistake. It has a lot more potential than that. North of HWY 30 is a big area. I would choose HWY3, or 18 as the line where things got beat up a little. JMHO

Take care

Edited by J P 6/26/2018 09:39
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