| bearsbite - 6/25/2018 18:50
Wow, that was a lot to take in and I really appreciate you taking the time to answer my questions so thoroughly and in a way I can understand. If I may ask one more question, I notice your chart has only one fork drawn when often times mine look like a spider web with me stuck with a position right in the middle waiting for trading life to end. Is that really the only line you have drawn or do you have an upward one all drawn up and ready to go with the lowest line now sitting there at last weeks low? You dont have to answer specifically where you do, but I would be interested to see if you prepare beforehand for such a scenario if that is even possible. It seems hard to believe have to wait 7 years to see if it is indeed valid. Thanks again it is very much appreciated.
Hi Bearsbite,
Ha. Good question. And again "It depends". That chart I posted was simply to point out the retest and ultimately the preciseness of price in a time where almost every post is political, crop, or weather related. Yet, price did exactly what it should have done, on a line that hasn't changed since 2013. It's not random. Price did what it should have - there are no accidents.
Some of my charts are a disaster though admittedly. Most of the time, that happens when I am studying some whatif scenarios and I don't take them off. But I have learned the ability over the last decade to look through the lines. For a long time, I couldn't do that. Put lines on a chart and that is what I would see. I could see the line, but not what price was doing with the line. And that is where it is at. But the honest truth is most time, there is one line or set of lines that are important for that swing, and while the rest may have their place someday, they aren't likely important currently, and might as well be erased.
To answer your last question, again "It depends" on the chart, and what I am framing - seeing from all the other bits of information price is giving us. The monthly bean chart, yes, I have slid the pivot over and I am watching to see if or how it is handled. I hope it never comes back there, but I am open to what price says because it came a bit deeper than I expected. Corn, for me is more complex. I have two lines that I have been watching all year. The one was the one I referenced first in March, and again recently where I mentioned it came up short. A really good example of watching one line because in my mind, that line is all that mattered. If we came up short, price is suggesting its weaker than it was before, if it surpassed it, it would have told me it was stronger than before and thus my plan in the future would be different than currently. So now I have added a third line more of an eyeball thing that I can see, much in the same way I did last winter where I eyeballed where price was going so I could make a sale. I have two ideas in my mind as to the outcome, that line is the one that will help me decide the probable path. The direction it chooses makes a BIG difference in how this thing develops in the future. Again, I have an opinion, but I am open to what price says. As far as waiting 7 years, well, not sure why you would expect that. Price could do what it took 7 years to do , in one year. Just because it seems like it's along ways away, when price starts moving on the "Y" axis at a quick rate, time means little then. That's the beauty of the sloped line. It gives you time and price on any date in the future. Not price on one date only like cycle timing would. And we already know it's active. If that was a one minute chart, and it would reach it in 7 minutes is no different than a monthly chart, that might reach it in 7 years. Those waves of energy have been distributed into time and space and they will be there when their time arrives.
Take Care
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Chart Question From JP's 6/21 post
