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| JC STONE - 5/13/2018 11:51
Aren't beans still in an uptrend on the weekly and monthly charts?
Which lows got "cracked"?
Hi JC,
The lows that cracked were the last place buyers were in Nov - around 10.09 near the first of April. Fact: There were buyers there. On the tariff scare they cracked them. Fact: They were not as convinced price would go higher this time and this was confirmed by the lack of new highs. That cracking has led to the bigger pullback since. Price didn't have enough energy to make new highs. So it needs either time and or price to do it. The danger is of course that often that "cracking" is confirming a pivot.
Not sure how you determine a trend I guess. You will have to enlighten me. In beans, not sure I would say there has ever been an uptrend on the weeklies or monthlies. I suppose "by the book", the 2016 rallies took out a couple levels of resistance so .... maybe. Fact is the buyers haven't confirmed a darn thing. They showed up to play in 2016, and haven't been back. To my eyes, both these corrections that are ongoing in the corn and beans are larger degree corrections in a bear market, and they will be followed with lower lows. FACT is that sellers showed up near the 2016 highs , and again near the 2017 highs and both confirmed - at least on the minor level. So the FACTS are that sellers were at 10.80 over a year ago, and we tested them this year, and they are still there. And their job is to go sub 9. At some point the buyers that created the 2016 highs are going to have to get off their duffs and stand their ground....and maybe they tried it near the last summers lows, but thus far at at least, it has been a half hearted effort. Maybe they will get with it, but the formation - to my eyes- eventually wants another crack at last years lows, and those buyers down there are going to want their crack again too. In the sloped line world, you got both higher highs and more lower lows. So price is rotating, and I think the rallies are inevitable, but I still think they are most likely a 2019 event - which can effect sales on this years poroduction...so that's why its a very individualized decision as to how to handle it.. So, I guess it depends on how you determine trend. Structurally on those two charts, buyers haven't done much for me anyway. JMHO
Take care
Edited by J P 5/14/2018 07:25
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Fry, JP, NoDak Cona etc
