|
South central kansas |
This is taken from Chris Swift commentary. Time will tell, if he is right.
Commodity Market Comments
by Christopher B. Swift
September 20, 2017
Live Cattle:
New contract highs in the April ’18 and out months. February appears to be hot on its heels. October and December may expire within their major wave 2 confines. At this time, I do not advocate being short. I do advocate using this rally to market inventory going into December. The negative basis can be secured with a put option and leave the top side open. A righting of the boat continues. While there is no bullish news, the supply bears just don’t have much more to go on any longer. Beyond the December time frame, fat cattle numbers are anticipated to decline. Were the on feed report to reflect a dynamic change in production, then anticipate a very close pattern to last year to materialize. I know many have been attempting to correlate ’16 to ’17 and is just didn’t. However, it may now and that correlation would be viewed as very friendly towards the market. The wave count is difficult on the October and December. This rally is perceived as the beginnings of a major wave 3, but will still most likely expire prior to setting new contract highs. The February and out months appear to be in a wave 1 of major wave 3. While February still lacks a little less than $4.00 to the contract high to confirm major wave 2 complete, the April and out have confirmed the completion of major wave 2 and considered in major wave 3. At this point, the major wave 3 will be anticipated to unfold in a 5 wave scheme. At present, wave 1 of major wave 3 remains in progress. A wave 2 of major wave 3 will be viewed as the opportunity to add or enter long positions and exit shorts. | |
|
Live cattle 80% to the next line
