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South Central Iowa | Corn will have a heavy ending stocks. But the soybeans are not burdensome. They are still 30 million bushel off on exports on the Wasde. So we should drop to 340 mb carryout for 16/17. Originally, we were over 500 mb last fall. We may drop more as well, last year's yield may be too high, so we could still have carry-in of under 300 mb before all is said and done. I posted this below to JC Stone about the tour and soybean pod counts, I will repeat it here:
Simple averaging each state in equal weight, the crop tour showed pod counts across all seven were 94.21% of the 3 year average. Indiana was right at the 3 year, but all others were down, Illinois 3%, Minnesota 6%, Iowa nearly 10%, etc. The 3 year average soybean production is 49.2 bpa; 47.5 + 48.0 + 52.1. 94.21% of 49.2 is 46.4 bpa.
46.4 national yield on soybeans allows technicals to guide a major rally.
Honestly, I would not be surprised to see soybeans under 45, so long as USDA does truly post honest yields. Only a short 3 years ago, we had never posted a national yield over 45.0, but now everyone acts like it would be unfathomable to yield under. Not only is it fathomable, but it is probably likely, if not this year, maybe next. 45.0 is not a disaster national yield.
If we take 30 mb off of carry-in and plug in 46.4 bpa, we drop carryout for 17/18 to 180 mb; a 4-5% stocks-use. 46.4 is a fantastic national yield, especially on the new 6 million acres with moderately challenging growing conditions this year. It's flat out, not enough though.
Corn will follow, otherwise we will run out of it next year if its price loses acres. | |
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My dark thoughts.
