Centre county Pennsylvania, USA | The 166.9 is final yield, not WASDE yield.
The model has not changed final yield much when 3 month climate temperature anomaly (Jun_Aug) has been used for years prior to 2017. I expect that to be the case again in 2017.
The model computes trend yield from the (unedited) USDA reported final yield data series. Because that series is for 22 years, I would not expect another year (2017) will change the trend by any significant amount.
My thoughts on WASDE are that WASDE uses subjective data, so WASDE reported numkbers are subjective not objective. Although debatable, I believe USDA reported final yields and NOAA reported cornbelt temperature anomalies are as objective as is possible. So, models that use only that objective data, should produce objective results.
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Expected US 2017 corn yield, Aug 8 2017 (chart)
