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NW Indiana | Lets take a look at recent history to try to predict the upcoming report Thursday.
2013-usda trend was 44.5. Come the August report they lowered estimate 1.9 bushels to 42.6 on a crop rating of 63%G/E. Final yield came in at 43.3
2014- usda trend was 45.2. Come the August report they raised yield .2 bushels to 45.4 on a crop rating of 71% G/E. Final yield came in at 47.8
2015-usda trend was 46. Come the August report they raised yield .9 bushels to 46.9 on a crop rating of 63% G/E. Final yield came in at 48
2016-usda trend was 46.7. Come the August report they raised yield 2.2 bushels to 48.9 on a crop rating of 72% G/E. Final yield came in at 52.1
2017-usda trend 48. Crop rating of 59% G/E as of August 1.
Conclusion- Trend was being adjusted .7-.8 most years except this year we jumped 1.3. One time with a G/E rating of 63 they lowered august yield, another time they raised it(wtf). They have consistently been to low on yield in August. Is this the year they decide to try to adjust estimates higher? According to crop ratings they should probably adjust yield down 1.5-2 bushels, I would be shocked. Apparently the weekly crop ratings don't mean anything. I'm not guessing I'm the only one with access to the above information, traders aren't stupid. Thursday is anyone's guess, the bleachers are the safest position. | |
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August 10th facts not charts
