|
NW Indiana | I'm not really sure what to think after today. I feel like it was panic. Everyone questioning their thoughts(psychology). Does the new forecast really drastically change things? Do I suddenly feel like crop rating are going to start improving? When I stop and think of the USDA trend yields I pause and remember they are forecasting the second highest bean yield ever and the 3rd highest corn yield ever. Crop ratings on corn are a 5 year low for this date. Beans are tied for a 5 year low. Corn was 76% in 2016, 69% in 2015, 76% in 2014 and 68% in 2013. Beans were 70% in 2016, 62% in 2015, 72% in 2014 and 77% in 2013. 2015 beans managed to dry out dramatically in the east and still managed a yield of 48. I can't honestly say I know where we are going from here but I am really struggling getting to the yields that are forecasted. With a shocking 52 bu bean crop last year we still managed beans of $10 most of the winter. With a record corn crop on big acres we managed to trade 3.60-3.80 for a long period. I could be crazy but I don't feel like selling at these levels in july. Personally I was getting all bulled up because we could start to see some major problems and I honestly didn't feel we had put much(if any) premium in the market according this past winter. Jpartner says we are going to certain targets no matter, I am not sure I can follow that but it is his opinion and I can't prove it wrong. Hopefully next week brings more clarity. Maybe it won't be until the August report before we really know what we are looking at. | |
|
Today really makes you think....
