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Ethanol update.
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JonSCKs
Posted 7/9/2017 22:03 (#6116012)
Subject: Ethanol update.


been awhile since I've updated this..  maybe nobody cares but what the heck..


Production.. is still running about 4% gain year on year.. but the gains are slowing now as we tripped 1 myn bbls per day about a year ago..  Margins I believe are compressed with the lower Crude.

Gasoline delivered is actually DOWN 2.1% even with Lower prices.. (hmmm Tara might have been right on this one..??  Shhh.. don't tell him.. ;-)

However, domestic Ethanol blended is STILL HIGHER..  (Yal dog!!) 1.3%.. John McCain drinks a glass of ethanol EVERYDAY... maybe 2 glasses with Trump in there..  "Cheers!"

And EXPORTS.. are STILL running about 31% higher.. Thanks Brazil.. wonder if they are really gonna cut us off?.. Like China has...???

So.. so far all this LOOKS good.. but "feels" a little "shaky".. good time to spike corn prices...???

Which brings me to Pruitt.. Yal he's repealing WOTUS.. and draining the swamp.. and TRUMP told him NOT to harm ethanol... but he didn't do us any favors either.. holding us at NO GAINS.. Whereas the RFS called for more increases..  Still not a happy camper there.. oh well..

If we can just keep McCain hooked.. we got a shot.. ;-)

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion Ethanol as % of

 

9/2/2016998 934 0 20,65454% 102.9 720  1036.9102,952  95959.73% 
9/9/20161004 921 0 20,20753% 146.9 1028  1067.9103,571  94069.79% 
9/16/2016981 920 0 20,01653% 88.3 618  1008.3101,198  96509.53% 
9/23/2016989 907 0 20,57854% 1.7 12  908.7102,023  888010.21% 
9/30/2016980 919 0 20,17753% 118.3 82832062,3731037.3101,095  93909.79% 
10/7/2016962 916 0 19,39351% 158.0 1106  1074.099,238  92649.89% 
10/14/2016998 915 0 19,04250% 133.1 932  1048.1102,952  879810.40% 
10/21/2016991 918 0 19,91953% -52.3 -366  865.7102,229  911810.07% 
10/28/20161022 922 0 19,73952% 125.7 88025523,1351047.7105,427  918310.04% 
11/4/20161002 923 0 19,22951% 151.9 1063  1074.9103,364  921310.02% 
11/11/20161017 904 0 18,60949% 201.6 1411  1105.6104,912  93599.66% 
11/18/20161014 917 0 18,95250% 48.0 336  965.0104,602  902410.16% 
11/25/20161012 906 0 18,44849% 178.0 124640562,9041084.0104,396  90809.98% 
12/2/20161023 872 0 18,53049% 139.3 975  1011.3105,531  87579.96% 
12/9/20161040 894 0 19,07650% 68.0 476  962.0107,284  887410.07% 
12/16/20161036 918 0 19,06050% 120.3 842  1038.3106,872  92699.90% 
12/23/20161028 935 0 18,68349% 146.9 1028  1081.9106,046  927810.08% 
12/30/20161043 845 0 18,67849% 198.7 139147122,3341043.7107,594  92789.11% 
1/6/20171049 806 0 20,00953% 52.9 370  858.9108,213  84709.52% 
1/13/20171054 840 0 21,11556% 56.0 392  896.0108,728  806910.41% 
1/20/20171051 833 0 21,72857% 130.4 913  963.4108,419  803910.36% 
1/27/20171061 837 0 21,87058% 203.7 142631012,9011040.7109,451  831010.07% 
2/3/20171055 875 0 22,08558% 149.3 1045  1024.3108,832  89419.79% 
2/10/20171040 847 0 22,50059% 133.7 936  980.7107,284  843310.04% 
2/17/20171034 868 0 22,66960% 141.9 993  1009.9106,665  866310.02% 
2/24/20171034 882 0 23,09161% 91.7 64236163,349973.7106,665  868610.15% 
3/3/20171022 877 0 22,85660% 178.6 1250  1055.6105,427  92689.46% 
3/10/20171045 911 0 22,76660% 146.9 1028  1057.9107,800  92549.84% 
3/17/20171044 915 0 22,59560% 153.4 1074  1068.4107,697  92009.95% 
3/24/20171054 911 0 23,25761% 48.4 339  959.4108,728  95249.57% 
3/31/20171019 918 0 23,70562% 37.0 25939503,044955.0105,118  92459.93% 
4/7/2017986 908 0 22,90360% 192.6 1348  1100.6101,714  92759.79% 
4/14/2017996 912 0 23,03461% 65.3 457  977.3102,745  92239.89% 
4/21/2017987 932 0 23,26961% 21.4 150  953.4101,817  920610.12% 
4/28/2017986 927 0 23,21361% 67.0 46924242,178994.0101,714  915610.12% 
5/5/20171006 928 28 23,05561% 128.6 900  1056.6103,777  94089.86% 
5/12/20171027 951 0 23,41462% 24.7 173  975.7105,943  945210.06% 
5/19/20171010 949 0 22,68460% 165.3 1157  1114.3104,189  97049.78% 
5/26/20171020 950 0 22,76360% 58.7 4112641 1008.7105,221  98229.67% 
6/2/2017999 909 0 21,98258% 201.6 1411  1110.6103,055  93179.76% 
6/9/20171002 931 0 22,54259% -9.0 -63  922.0103,364  926910.04% 
6/16/2017990 943 0 22,28059% 84.4 591  1027.4102,126  98169.61% 
6/23/20171015 961 0 21,83858% 117.1 820  1078.1104,705  953810.08% 
6/30/20171014 945 0 21,57157% 107.1 7503509 1052.1104,602  97059.74% 
7/7/2017                     
                      
                      
16/17 MY 44 wks1016.8 905.7 0.6 21222.4  109.6  3376.72777.31015.4104,8934,615myn bu9145.79.91% 
15/16 MY 52 wks977.9 894.4 5.3 20846.4  83.6 584.92576.31733.1977.9100,8822,505myn bu9338.8  
                4010.42,110myn bu9411.0-1.52% 
17 vs 164.0% 1.3%   21557.0yr ago 31.2% -100.0%31.1%60.2%3.8%4.0%84.3% -2.1%  
   116962   Calendar Yr: 7755.3 54287.0 20103.0       



Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

Cheers. 

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