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| The problem has been, big supplies, good SA crop and our own crop is on schedule (the last 15% might not end up on schedule). That's the report from Ron Obvious of 20/20 hindsight marketing (still on a sell signal for July 2012 corn). I would like to think the market would use the fundamentals of grain every so often just for a reality check and to let low prices do their job. End users have been beaten up over the last 10 years and are now permanent walmart shoppers. Demand is ok, but low prices helps find uses, and, in the end, cause the fundamental picture to look better.
Now, that said, if trump's plan or, frankly, just saying he has a plan to improve the economy, starts working (Reagan or Kennedy didn't do much more), our crazy fund money goes hunting for new ventures to invest in. However, the media is dead set on making up stories and declaring "there! we've got him", so maybe it takes longer and we might get a few more selling opportunities as money "runs to quality" (there's a nonsense statement for you). I was a little young for Kennedy, but Reagan faced lots of press static, but his basic cheerleading for the American people got traction and worked. Of course, the result is no soup for us and possibly another "keep the wheat and sell the farmer" type comment. How much would we get for Jon? :-)
All kidding aside, it is the reality we face. Funds have buoyed our market quite well - decent yields and some 'right sizing/debt retirement' doesn't make $3.50 corn a bankruptcy event. Maybe I'm pessimistic (started in the early 90's, what else is there?), but I just don't see commodities as a great investment if you don't use them. I'm glad others feel the opposite way, but it's a gift not an entitlement. Plan accordingly and of course be happy to sell if prices go high. | |
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Well back to being me!
