Well, you're a basis trader, and you study spreads. When historical spreads between short term float and 10 yr fixed has normally been a few/several points, and suddenly it is flatter than pee on a plate, I'm saying it's time to get some 10 yr money locked down. Was looking at a scenario like yours a few months ago - when the premium for locked money is that cheap, to me it is a sign to lock a chunk down. So what if we're wrong - 10 yrs at under 4%...? Down side - very inflationary, but not as an increase in the money supply or generation of real wealth. Luke. |