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Busy week on the ethanol front.. Icahn in trouble..?!?
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JonSCKs
Posted 3/12/2017 09:25 (#5893780 - in reply to #5893626)
Subject: point taken..


Should we have a mandate for farmers to be forced to use a certain amount of manure as fertilizer and if there's not enough Manure you can buy credits? 

Other than the analogy of manure as ethanol... that's probably pretty close.  Icahn and Dinneen are probably on the right track that the point of obligation.. as a point of fairness.. should be at the Rack.. where users can do something about it.. aka sell blended ethanol.  Afterall in the words of Bob Dinneen.. "It's how California does it.. with it's low carbon policy.."  The refiners like CVR and Holly and Frontier are not ethanol producers.. Nor do they sell gasoline to the customer..   (Although I still believe Icahn should go..)

A couple bigger picture items..  Yes OPEC has tried to prop up prices by reducing production.. Yes KSA is doing MOST of the heavy lifting while Russia and others Cheat..  Yes there may be more cuts on the way.. ??  or not..??

In the US the Rig count has rebounded on the EXPECTATIONS that Crude Oil prices are going to firm.. and thus both numbers of rigs in the field as well as prices have rebounded..  

Here is the drilling productivity report..  
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/dpr-full.pdf )

However, not all Shale production is equal.. as the Bakken has seen pretty heafty declines in production falling BELOW 1 myn bbls per day..

https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/historicalbakkenoilstats.pdf )

probably due to the higher costs of getting that crude to market with all the hangups on DAPL and other cheaper sources of transportation.. it appears that DAPL is coming online http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/despite-protests-dakota-access-pipeline-nears-completion/ )

However as the US has become a PLAYER in the Energy export markets..  NOTE for the FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME.. the US is on pace to EXPORT more CRUDE then.. (gasp ) it Imports.. not there yet.. but if trends continue...???  Certainly when you look at the products.. including ethanol.. it HELPS the trade balance.. 


https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_imports )

Including ethanol..

U.S. Exports of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels)
 
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
  20103245191,1539734143876037079298349301,717
  20111,3641,4252,0032,8651,7431,6043,0361,2462,5252,8953,6344,117
  20121,8191,7851,9921,7751,3971,4101,5191,2061,1911,2849651,313
  20131,5181,0171,3129679527968301,1821,2991,2062,1341,525
  20142,0911,5172,0591,6591,2651,3781,5991,2921,3531,9492,1141,872
 
  20151,6401,6622,0571,7611,4971,4991,7161,2721,4921,7921,4271,995
  20162,0761,5982,2702,2761,3281,1081,6521,8562,3733,1352,9042,334

( https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPO... )

So the Markets are rewarding those who are closer to the gulf which can refine the crude and hence either export it directly or refine it and export some of the products.  Which favors the Permian and Eagle Ford Shale plays.. and contributes to why the Permian is still growing production. 

As farmers we want an RFS which continues to open markets for ethanol.. both domestic and foreign.

Making changes to it though is RISKY.. might improve it.. might kill it...???

It's a complicated issue.

Side note..  WHY does a supposedly farmer owned cooperative such as CHS not PROMOTE ethanol more?  There SHOULD BE Blender pumps at EVERY CENEX station.. such as my own.. and yet my OWN Farmer Cooperative refuses to spend REAL $$$ (I get that..) to improve the MARKETPLACE for all of us to MOVE MORE AGRICULTURAL products.. Does Not CHS move grain.. fertilizer etc.. even refined diesel to farmers to grow more corn?

CHS should be LEADING THE PARTY to ethanol blender pumps.. Look at Murphy Oil.. etc.. how do we reward the Murphy Oils and encourage the CHS's?? 



Edited by JonSCKs 3/12/2017 21:08
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