| zenfarm - 2/22/2017 08:19
Trump has made it a habit of starting from an extreme position and then coming off that position to some where in the middle. I think the trade policy will work just fine, because of Trumps habit of starting extreme and then backing off. But, having said that the future is still uncertain and the law of unintended consequences may come in to play.
The article was not a "red herring" but IMO, a pragmatic look at scenarios of what might happen, not of what will happen. Again read the article by Howard Marks.
I never said trade policy was end all, be all in terms of price for Ag commodities. Overall supply and demand both domestically and internationally play a dominant role but within that supply and demand framework trade policies such as China admittance to the WTO have made big a difference in prices for Ag commodities.
I would suggest you also read about cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias.
Ironic you mention cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias. That was my reasoning for posting on this topic in the first place. I can't count how many times I've read the "Trump will kill the ag economy with his stupid trade policies" theory.
My feeling is this. The sky is not falling. China needs the US as much as we need China, perhaps moreso. The same goes for Mexico, or whatever other nation you want to throw in the mix.
If in a few years soybean exports to China are cut in half and are being replaced with beans from SA for reasons other than price, I will humbly come back on here and admit that the sky really was falling and you are right. |
Issues bigger than the farm bill
