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| Trade, RFS, emerging markets, and technology all played a part in the runup in ag, yes. My point in this is that I've heard a lot about how the everything is going to come crashing down now that Trump is in office. There were people talking on Nov 8th about dumping everything because of the "trump factor". And it's been talked about so much, if we had a natural correction like we had last winter it would most certainly be blamed on Trump's trade policy. It has become a red herring.
Tell me this, if global trade is the biggest driver why did commodity prices drag before 2007? What bad trade policy was to blame for that? Or last winter, when futures were much worse than now, what bad trade policy was to blame? If trade policy is the be all end all factor, you certainly assign that has the reason for past futures moves, right? Because that will be the reason for the impending bear market, if it happens. It has been decided regardless of whatever the true reasons are. | |
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Issues bigger than the farm bill
