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Ethanol update.
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JonSCKs
Posted 2/11/2017 22:53 (#5833591 - in reply to #5832943)
Subject: personal opinion.. but..???


They are at 1000k+bbls a week now is there more grind capacity when we hit the summer demand months or is the extra going to have to come from stocks and imports? Also if we have more grind capability will we see a slight boost of corn price if we can grind 1100-1200bbls a week? Or what's your thoughts on it?

From what I've read.. we'll run the highest now during the winter.. could be wrong but the quarterly report I read last week stated just that.. "best runs occur during the winter."  Now we have been adding a little bit of capacity through debottlenecking as well as returning online some of the partially completed and or bankrupted capacity from the binge build.  Problems in the summer are what do you do with all the DDGS?  Whereas during the winter feed is in greater demand..

The ethanol market has been growing but given the ability to push beyond design capacity.. I believe most are surprised at just how high.. for as long as we have done it.. over the past couple of weeks.  Just as we were starting to tempt some to add new capacity.. we get news of cold feet.  

Historically Q1 is a weak quarter and margins are constrained again now.  As I posted earlier we will get a tighter vapor limit on summer gasoline which will limit the amount of alternatives which can be substituted vs ethanol here in a few weeks.  Thus a higher domestic demand.. limited alternatives.. plus a bump for summer driving should add a little pop to premiums.. thus if you can store it?  ethanol in the future should be worth more than it is today.  The ethanol futures market does not show it however the RBOB futures certainly does...  cross hedge?

The plants have limited storage capacity but the broader gasoline storage system is MUCH bigger..


This past week EIA reported that we had 22 k bbls of ethanol in storage..

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W ) 

Whereas Total gasoline stocks were 
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGTSTUS1&f=W ) almost 12 times that last week at 256 k bbls.. Last year the peak was 258 k bbls on the week of 2/12/16.. whereas the bottom came the week of 11/04/16 at 220.9.. so top to bottom was almost 38 k bbls.. almost DOUBLE what we have in storage for ethanol.. So if someone wanted to buy HALF of the ethanol stocks and park them somewhere... they probably could..??  But it would probably be one of the bigger energy players as that would be REAL $$$ for most of the ethanol players.. although some continue to integrate and build strategic storage into their system.. in order to capitalize upon such opportunities..

Not unlike what goes on in the Corn market.. 

The US dominates exports during our off season.. we used to import more but I believe those who would export to us.. namely Brazil.. are probably finding better markets elsewhere.. thus US imports have declined over time..

again..
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W )

Now.. a growing market both domestic and exports.. debottlenecked US Capacity.. and a Record crop have lead to Record ethanol production.

As corn stocks dwindle.. and the US Corn producer becomes more tight fisted.. we'll probably see that reflected in the future ethanol grind.. so personally I doubt that we will see summer levels as large as we have seen recently...  ???  but who knows?  Guess we'll find out..

It's probably going to depend upon the size of the 2017 corn crop as well as other things..

at the end of the day.. ethanol sitting in a storage tank somewhere is probably gonna look pretty good.. here in a couple of weeks.

jmho.. "I could be wrong." 

lol.. if ya wanted to be an ethanol player.. buy a tank.. fill it with ethanol about now.. and sell it later this summer.. no doubt this will get arbitraged out over time.. but given the growth.. all it takes is $$$.



Edited by JonSCKs 2/11/2017 22:57
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