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South Central Iowa | Yes. I should add the caveat that I will not make a big buy until after the acre report. Right now I am only going long on about a 1/4 of what I would like in soybeans in case I get swamped over. I am pretty confident in the floor as I mentioned with my percentages up above, but it doesn't change that I see big supplies. In 2015 the $10.50's were all the higher we got in the summer. That is what makes me nervous about buying at this level. After acres are known and, in my mind anyway, as long as soy is under 88 million acres, I will feel more comfortable buying in this area. If the acres are under 88 million, I think we can have all the run we did last year and maybe more. The demand is just that big and the weather "threat" will be there like it is most every year.
The technical floor is strong though, don't doubt it too much. I really think a run to $11 eliminates anything $9 until after the weather season. It would take crazy big 90+ million acres to scare the market out of it. There will be lots of technical strength below, and the sense of relativity that would make $10.20 seem cheap. People try to avoid trading that way, but it is inevitable. It also helps that seasonality is on the side of rising prices and we have a well established trend. Trends in soybeans and corn most always pivot in the summer and autumn, rarely in spring or winter. My two cents. | |
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Soybean Daily Sale
