IN555 - 1/12/2017 13:28 So lets go with a realistic bull case for Jon. Lets say we have a rough growing season and yields come in below trend. Lets go with a 160 corn yield and 45.5 soybean yield. Also lets drop planted acreage due to the horrible planting season by 1.5 million evenly split. So corn 160x83 is 13.280 production. That would drop ending stocks by 1.305(assuming the same prices which wouldn't happen if this was the case) so that would get ending stocks down to 1.055 billion. But lets say corn was a steady 4.50 demand would likely drop 600-800 million so at 4.50 corn ending stocks would be 1.655-1.855. At $5.50 corn demand would likely drop 1-1.5 billion so total production would have to be 12.500 or lower(imo) which would be a yield of 150. Lets keep that in mind price determines demand. Soybeans 45.5x85.6 is 3.895 production. That would drop ending stocks by 213(assuming the same prices which wouldn't happen if this was the case) so that would get ending stocks down to 207. But lets say soybeans was a steady $12 demand would likely drop 75-100 million so ending stocks of 282-307. At $14 beans demand would drop even more so I think you can get the point of what it will take to get back to $14 beans and 5.50 corn. Is it possible in 2017? Absolutely but as you can see it takes so significant production declines.