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Branchville, Alabama | Recession always results in recovery. The question is when and will we have a sharp rebound or a stagnant stabilization. Where are we in the cycle? The U.S.
retail sales for the 4th quarter will ensure reduced purchases from China and other export countries. Those orders will be placed for 4th q 09 in the next few weeks. IMO this will ensure a reduced growth rate in China and others which will limit gains in oil prices and other industrial commods. which will aid earnings when stabilization comes.
The reduced fuel prices in the U.S are providing a substantial stim. to U.S. economy. When some level of confidence returns this savings will be spent.
As the economy stabilizes the unemployment rate will as well. It is my guess/opinion that the U.S recovers 1st. causing a strong $. As the economy improves the fed will allow rates to increase before those of EU and others-- resulting in more $ strength. A strong dollar again holds inflation at bay allowing rates to remain lower longer again boosting recovery. However world wide a higher level of inflation will occur in time as designed to ease debt to gnp ratios.
Most predict a late 2009 or 2010 recovery. Most are usually wrong. What is no one predicting? The recovery is imminent, that's what. Buy stocks. Buy meat complex. Am I talking my book-yep!
Optimism springs eternal in the spring. With the spring recovery begins. The market is beginning to discount this now.
We have learned some valuable lessons. We will emerge stronger for it. As citizens we must now remember the image of the marines planting the flag at IWO JIMA. IT IS TIME TO GRAB ONTO THE FLAGPOLE BOYS---We have overcome much much worse. We must have the character of our dads and granddads.
Im am sick of all the whinin and complainin--give me a piece of that flagpole! I'm pushin foward!
"Damn the Torpedoes! Full Stream Ahead!"
P.S. I don't know if I really believe all this but just writing it makes me feel better. May God Bless the USA!
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recovery-when will it come?
