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Theodore, Saskatchewan | Eastern Saskatchewan we keep getting rain yet. Yesterday was sunny though but nothing could move do to the rain the night before. North of here it is still snow but hopefully they got rain to melt the snow. Still some time to grind some damp canola through. Though lots will be left out. If there is 4 million tonne of canola still in the field AB/SK then maybe half could be off if guys are lucky and maybe couple million tonne will be lost. Very bad situation for lots of guys. To be honest the weather could not get warm enough now to dry fields and canola out. Not possible. The best case scenario would be extreme cold and no snow for the next month. If you have no snow already that is. Then the black mush will turn to northern pavement and you could get across the field.
So now the real question is if this has much influence on price. Or how much influence compared to all the other factors such as canadian dollar, edible oil prices, etc. Lots of different opinions out there
Sellers have shown up at this price level. If they have any strength remains to be seen. Personally just because sellers were at 500 4 months ago I would not give credit to them being here again. They were not able to make new lows.
I am watching what these sellers will do and if they do not hold the 540 area would be my bet.
Here is a chart showing how price has taken the range it was in before and doubled it before finding resistance.
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Canola prices
