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time to buy land
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John Burns
Posted 9/16/2016 10:21 (#5531976 - in reply to #5531700)
Subject: RE: time to buy land



Pittsburg, Kansas

One of many things that has me puzzled is how crowded the exit will get when too many people decide stocks and bonds are priced too high. How much can central banks buy to keep them propped up without the markets loosing complete credibility? I don't know because it has already lost credibility for me, but I'm obviously not like the average market participant. One other important aspect to all of this is the amount of institutional money involved. Lots of money in retirement accounts are managed by professional investors. This money generally does not get moved around a lot by the retirement account owners. So the money managers have to put this money to work some where and about the only two places that are big enough to hold it all is the stock market and the bond market. So that money is somewhat captured. It is not going to exit the market. Unless I suppose the account owners get spooked enough they just tell their managers they want it all in "safe" money market accounts. I'm rambling.

How much of the "market" can central banks own before the market participants decide it is not really a "market" any more but an artificially propped up house of cards?

I just do not know where all of this is going. There is a huge amount of liquidity that could decide it wants to be invested in something else should it get spooked. But where will it go if not the stock or bond market? Those are the only liquid markets large enough to hold the "wealth". That is the dilemma I keep coming back to. What if enough people get spooked that the bond and stock market are not a safe place for their life savings? Where will it go? How big is the exit and where does the exit lead to? A cliff?

Don't know, but it will get very interesting if we are forced to find out some day. I think the Fed and associated other central banks around the world are playing with matches in a room filled with half full gasoline cans. In their desire and interventions to avoid a recession they are going to create instead not a depression but an explosion. Then a depression.

John



Edited by John Burns 9/16/2016 10:22
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