Replying to all these.. 

all good points..

"best crop ever.. " yada yada yada..
"good farmers vs poor.."
"haven't been out there.."
"green to Tinbuktu.."
"basis gonna slide..".

All I have is data..

Point #1 As acreage increases in the fringe.. Average Yields go down.. specifically in response to FC Stone that INCREASED Kansas yield to 158 vs last year's 148 DESPITE probably 500,000 + acres added of DRYLAND production.  2/3rds of the added acres are in the Western 2/3rd's of the state.. and it's mostly DRYLAND... and it's NOT going to average 158!!

It could be "Beau Coup wonderful" (pick your yield) and STILL BE BELOW LAST YEAR for the state wide average.

Point #2 As Kansas's basis has fallen.. (we're now cheaper than North Dakota in some places..on corn with basis for new crop sorghum over a DOLLAR under... and corn basis at levels we have not seen in "awhile."

We have attracted NEW DEMAND.. You can now RAIL CORN OUT OF KANSAS and make $$$ doing it... AND WE ARE IN FACT DOING THAT RIGHT NOW!!!  I can not recall that EVER happening before.  Can you?  Abilene Kansas.. Shuttles headed East...

Point #3.. not only are We Railing corn out.. but so is Nebraska.. in Fact Nebraska Basis bids are HIGHER then Kansas.. in some rail markets.. the Normal pattern USED to be corn coming DOWN FROM Nebraska..  This year we could see .. some..??  Going north.. Irregardless we will "probably" not fight as many bushels as "normal" whatever that is??  coming down from up north..

In my area.. we used to see corn trucked in from up north.. and our grain went SW.. and SW Ks grain went down into the panhandles..

Point #4  Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas feedlots are going to be fuller of heavier cattle than in awhile.. repeating from below.. " Kansas Cattle on feed numbers were up like 9% last week... placements were up 13%  ( http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CattOnFe/CattOnFe-08-19-2016.pdf )  And they are heavier cattle.. chewing through More feed.. plus we still got some of the smaller ones.. ( marketings down 5% yoy) placed earlier..  Oklahoma on feed was up 20% and Texas added almost as many head as Kansas did...  We're gonna FEED ALOT of Corn this winter!!"

It is "normal" to Rail Corn into the Panhandles area.. as well as even SW Kansas.. that area is going to be shrunk this year.. until the local supply gets "chewed through" but.. "it's only a matter of time.." till the market corrects.. Am I optimistic that by December?  Maybe.. just because a Feedlot has it's needs lined up through a broker.. DOES NOT MEAN.. that the Broker has filled it..  so you can not judge the situation just by that.. Kudo's to the feedlot.. they are doing the right thing.. locking in the low.. can it get lower.. possible.. can it get Higher.. YES!!  IT WILL when the surplus disappears..

As Kansas has grown more resiliant upon Local supplies.. Nebraska has seen more of it's corn either go to the feedlots.. (normal) the ethanol plants (that's relatively new..) or the Rail Loaders..  (some normal/some new..) as the PNW has GROWN in importance...  as it is now.  Back to Kansas.. North East Kansas replaced Nebraska as the "go to place" to source corn.. which has occurred the past..  couple years.. more so.. as production has grown.. etc..

THIS YEAR.. North East Kansas Corn basis is HIGHER than here.. "okay."  So again.. our corn.. raised here.. is gonna be consumed here..  OR Basis is gonna firm to draw what's needed in.. which I agree will probably be less than normal.

So for these reasons.. this year will be different.. Who knows what the future holds.. at this point in 2010.. same problem.. "WHAT are we Gonna do with it ALL?!?"

6 months later.. prices doubled..

24 months later.. we were trucking corn UP FROM WACO TEXAS to SW KANSAS to make it into harvest...

so my whole point is based on this..

"How long will we remain at these super low basis levels?"

with people putting out estimates for a 158 Kansas yield...???

I yield the floor. 

ps as PK says below.. "Ford County is $.65 under normal".. a $0.30 basis snap back is only coming back less than 50%.. seems like a pretty safe bet to me... 

but.. I could be wrong..??

"DRYLAND Kansas corn running 250+.. had to PAY the Feedlot to take it."

There can you top that one? 

Did I mention that I believe Kansas will set a Record for Corn Production?  I do.. but it's not the end of the world.. 

The PREVIOUS record is 598 myn in 2009.. we will Probably best that this year.. however in 2010.. IN SPITE of adding 790 myn MORE harvested acres.. we harvested 22 myn bushels less...??

On my farm.. we will Probably NOT best those yields.. 100 bu dryland 208 irrigated.
In 2010.. we did 98 dryland.. and 183 irrigated..

I hope we do better than the 183 irrigated.. but probably will not best the 98 dryland..

There will be some corn raised on irrigated acres.. that do NOT exceed 150 this year.. "here."  It could be up to 10..15..20% of the irrigated acres in my county due to pumping water restrictions.. and the LAST YEAR of the MYFA program from the state. 

"so it goes.."