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Jesup, IA | So it's the day after the shocker. So many corn acres. Beans go unscathed after a nice few weeks. Wheat doesn't go lower (that's new).
Usually somebody saw it coming. Had their finger on the pulse of the market. Put their clients in the right positions. Anybody come to mind?
I always follow a few folks (and rotate these sources) to make sure I don't get stuck in a rut. I think I'm being fair on the positions of these analysts:
Roach - Had sell signals on corn and beans. The corn signal turned out accurate. The beans sell signal has lasted almost two weeks. Early sales would be well underwater.
Grabanski - I get the AG Forum for some reason in Iowa. He was buying with both hands expecting prices to take off in April. Even with his crazy rants about "Jed", he has been short a couple years in a row and seems to pick the bottom. He could be right in the longer run, but yesterday would have been a pretty big margin call.
Gulke - I don't subscribe, but know a few that do. I believe he was touting 94 mil corn acres. Did he have clients short?
Sue Martin - Only watch her on Market to Market every few weeks. Years ending in "6" are always years to go long? Ok, so then yesterday was your chance to buy?
Top Third (Mark Gold) - Signed up for a free trial at the Top Producer Conference. Gold advocated buying short dated new crop puts. But he also advocated buying calls on new crop too. It would have worked in your favor a bit on corn yesterday, but seems like an expensive strategy.
How about Brock, Allendale, AgResource? Anybody see this coming and have the courage to act?
Edited to add comments about Top Third/Mark Gold.
Edited by Ben Riensche 4/1/2016 06:51
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So did any oracle have it right?
