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Is it really that bad?
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JonSCKs
Posted 3/31/2016 14:51 (#5212475)
Subject: Is it really that bad?


Heck once we sorted through the numbers.. wheat rallied on the close.. beans popped back up.

We only have 58 myn more bushels of corn now than this time last year.. yes we gained 3 myn acres to corn (lost 1.2 to sorghum..) the trade ALWAYS assumes it's all gonna get in.. and just like last year.. some will be unable..  What is the average prevented plantings over the past couple years..??  Why do we always assume that PP will be zero?

all in all.. puts a little margin back in ethanol.. life goes on.

of the 3 myn over shoot on corn acreage.. we got another 2 undershoot in wheaties..(54.6 LY expected 51.. got 49 when Spring wheat was included on this report..) 0.4 in beanies.. and 1.2 in sorghum..  +3 corn -3.6 elsewhere.. and we have the acreage where it needs to be.. golly if we get a short crop.. gonna need the corn.

all in all it's a wash.. back to weather.. Not like we can't see $4.50 corn later this summer on a weather event.. we did last year.. 58 myn bushels.. that's a hic up..

Most in the Trade do not acknowledge things like FAS numbers vs Census.. see my wheat post last night

( http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=622609&posts=8#M5211991 )

Census is running 53 myn bushels ahead of FAS on actual numbers.. 3/4's of the way through the marketing year.. do we end up at 70?  Sheesh.. "settle people.. settle down.."

edit to fix spelling.. and grammer.. "darn fat fingers.." 



Edited by JonSCKs 3/31/2016 15:05
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