Last fall NOAA said:

( http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/101515-noaa-strong-el-nino-sets-the-stage-for-2015-2016-winter-weather.html )

Strong El Niño sets the stage for 2015-2016 winter weather

October 15, 2015 

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Winter Outlook today favoring cooler and wetter weather in Southern Tier states with above-average temperatures most likely in the West and across the Northern Tier. This year’s El Niño, among the strongest on record, is expected to influence weather and climate patterns this winter by impacting the position of the Pacific jet stream.

“A strong El Niño is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “While temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are favored, El Niño is not the only player. Cold-air outbreaks and snow storms will likely occur at times this winter. However, the frequency, number and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale.”

Other factors that often play a role in the winter weather include the Arctic Oscillation, which influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and nor'easters on the East Coast, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can impact the number of heavy rain storms in the Pacific Northwest.

The 2015 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):

Precipitation Outlook:

• Wetter-than-average conditions most likely in the Southern Tier of the United States, from central and southern California, across Texas, to Florida, and up the East Coast to southern New England. Above-average precipitation is also favored in southeastern Alaska.  

• Drier-than-average conditions most likely for Hawaii, central and western Alaska, parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, and for areas near the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Temperature Outlook:

• Above-average temperatures are favored across much of the West and the northern half of the contiguous United States. Temperatures are also favored to be above-average in Alaska and much of Hawaii. Below-average temperatures are most likely in the southern Plains and Southeast.

Drought Outlook:

• The U.S. Drought Outlook shows some improvement is likely in central and southern California by the end of January, but not drought removal. Additional statewide relief is possible during February and March. Drought removal is likely across large parts of the Southwest, while improvement or removal is also likely in the southern Plains. However, drought is likely to persist in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with drought development likely in Hawaii, parts of the northern Plains and in the northern Great Lakes region.

To wit we've experienced one of the dryest starts to the year and it's forecast to hit the mid 80's this week here..

with this update from swkswxblogspot.com  (http://swkswx.blogspot.com/2016/02/this-pattern-is-not-el-nino-like-update.html )

This pattern is NOT El Nino like! Update 02/11/16

If you would go back and read blog posts from late summer on, I stressed many times that trying to predict long term weather (months in advance) based solely on the existence of an "El Nino", usually fails.  I  pointed out early on that a wild card this year would be the warm waters across the north Pacific.  The pattern this winter across North America has for the most part been anything but an typical El Nino pattern.  Just recently, the northeast 1/4 of the country has been very cold.  Yesterday, Thursday February 11, saw an extreme gradient of temperature.  While it was in the mid to upper 70s across southwest Kansas (there were low 80s mixed in), the temperature across Iowa and northeast Missouri was only in the teens.  That is quite a contrast!

 

The media (and even proclaimed weather experts) have said the recent warmth is tied to "El Nino".  Ha!  Based on these expert forecasts, El Nino was supposed to bring cooler than normal weather from California across the southern states (including southern Kansas).  Isn't that a bit contradictory? The recent warmth and the cold across the northeast can be traced back to the warmth across the north Pacific (the wild card).  Looking at the Thursday morning satellite image, I've circled in some crazy upper level wind flow.




Taking a composite of upper level winds during El Nino events, this jet stream configuration should not exist.  Really since December, the atmosphere has gone through several adjustments and can be tied to several events (I won't go into detail here).

I still think the pattern will settle back into what was occurring during the fall and early winter.  But when?  The jet stream configuration across the central and western Pacific is showing some characteristics of energy redistribution.  Although computer model forecasts are showing a lot, I'm still seeing a change to unsettled weather the last 7 to 10 days of this month and into March.  The February 16th (give or take a couple of days) outlook I've talked about in the past two posts, is still not showing up.  So confidence has waned on that system.  I take another look this weekend.

BTW, one of the long range computer  forecast models did have a pretty wet solution for later this month.  NOTE:  DO NOT TAKE THIS FOLLOWING IMAGE LITERALLY!

 

If we really are going to go into an unsettled pattern as stated above, then the type of output in the image should become a bit more frequent.  Not surprisingly, the same model showed very little precipitation in it's run just six hours later.  

Warm and dry for the rest of this week here... talk of wheat coming out of dormacy.. actually turned the A/C on yesterday in the pickup..

So which is it?

It would not surprise me to see another cold snap and maybe we do finally get the moisture that was forecast.. ???