Heres a parallel that came to me the other day...

My 3 year old is just starting to attempt to sound out some words in the books we read, but gets hung up on what he thinks the word is before sounding it out. For example, We  read a Thomas the train book and Percy is a train in the book. He sees a word in the book and asks what it is... the word is "people". Kind of a hard word to sound out but I asked him what he thinks it says. He can identify letters really good... sees the two Ps in the word and says "Percy". As I help him sound out the word we start out with puh, P says puh. E says eee. so we start sounding out the word and he jumps to Percy because in his head he had initially come to the conclusion that this word was Percy in the first place... 

So I have to correct him and tell him to stop trying to guess the word and instead to sound it out, and let the letters tell you what the word actually is. Again we start sounding out the word and we get through "p", "e", "o", and back to the "p" and I tell him the "o" is kind of silent so we start to pronounce the word out... puh.. eeee...oP... Percy!

I really thought he was going to get the rest because I had said the "Llll" sound on the end before... 

letting the letters direct what the word is instead of what our preconceived ideas are... are important for learning anything

here are some examples of how a market can tell you what its doing just like reading a book. the first chart is trying to sound out the word... the second is reading the page... and the last is reading the book in context. The last chart I didn't do swings but instead some other tools I use. They are projecting prices "path" and the blue is a different tool than the green though they may look similar.

You can see that price has finally bounced off of both the blue and the greens lower median line... this means there are 2 factors behind this last bounce that could mean a change in direction from sideways to.... UP? 3.80 needs to be broken first before anything changes. If 3.80 holds and price leaves the green lines then I would expect a quicker drop down to the 3.00 area. If price moves above 3.80 I will be feeling a lot better about this coming year. Looking for targets in the $4, $4.50 and even the $4.65 area. This next year is still a year where grain needs to be SOLD when good prices present themselves... because in my opinion... the low is not yet in.

Either way price is to be read out... and not with preconceived ideas... 

 
 

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Screen Shot 2016-01-28 at 2.08.20 PM.png (86KB - 15 downloads)

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