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Weekly ethanol update.
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JonSCKs
Posted 1/21/2016 15:22 (#5053323)
Subject: Weekly ethanol update.


The weekly report was delayed a day due to Monday's holiday.

The ethanol grind did slow this week.. and we did get a build in stocks.. However both the grind and domestic usage are higher than a year ago.. furthermore for the crop year to date we are still up 2.9% Year on Year on ethanol production.. 2.1% on domestic usage..  and 20.9% on IMPLIED exports..  Gasoline SUPPLIED (are buyers waiting on lower prices to fill..?? I would.. could be some slap.. but probably not a lot..) is still up 1.1%.. which.. is not as much.. as earlier.  Stocks of ethanol are up to 21.9 myn bbls..  Last year we peaked out the week of 2/20/15 at 21.594 myn bbls.. going into the summer driving season.. so yes we are above that.

Probably something for both sides here.. again the grind continues to run about 2.85 myn bushels per week above last year's pace.

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.78conversion Ethanol as % of

9/4/2015958 896 0 18,64249% 113.4 794  1009.4101,314  90179.94% 
9/11/2015961 878 0 18,29148% 133.1 932  1011.1101,631  89839.77% 
9/18/2015938 892 44 18,90050% 3.0 21  895.099,199  92159.68% 
9/25/2015943 881 0 18,78250% 78.9 5522,2991,438959.999,727  90219.77% 
10/2/2015950 882 17 18,81250% 80.7 565  962.7100,468  89589.85% 
10/9/2015949 887 0 18,95650% 41.4 290  928.4100,362  91379.71% 
10/16/2015951 897 0 18,87250% 66.0 462  963.0100,573  91579.80% 
10/23/2015944 915 0 18,27348% 114.6 802  1029.699,833  93439.79% 
10/30/2015969 884 10 18,77449% 23.4 1642,2831,796907.4102,477  91849.63% 
11/6/2015982 868 26 18,85450% 128.6 900  996.6103,852  93889.25% 
11/13/2015975 870 0 19,24951% 48.6 340  918.6103,112  90549.61% 
11/20/20151008 885 0 19,62752% 69.0 483  954.0106,601  89219.92% 
11/27/2015956 876 36 19,99753% 63.1 4422,165 939.1101,102  92819.44% 
12/4/2015993 839 0 19,82952% 178.0 1246  1017.0105,015  94208.91% 
12/11/20151000 890 32 20,32254% 71.6 501  961.6105,755  92209.65% 
12/18/2015973 880 0 20,38754% 83.7 586  963.7102,900  91859.58% 
12/25/2015992 907 0 20,16653% 116.6 8163,149 1023.6104,909  93959.65% 
1/1/2016996 787 0 21,09956% 75.7 530  862.7105,332  81599.65% 
1/8/20161003 807 0 21,34556% 160.9 1126  967.9106,073  85009.49% 
1/15/2016983 856 0 21,94058% 42.0 294  898.0103,958  90799.43% 
             3,741pace       
15 to date971.2 873.9 8.3 19556  85 5922727??958102,710  9081  
14 to date944.2 855.9 1.1 18169  70 4902210182292699,854  8980  
                2855.4     
15 vs 142.9% 2.1%   7.6%  20.9% 20.9%23.4%??3.5%2.9%  1.1%  
   48080.0   Calendar Yr: 4498.6 31490.0 16704.0       
   14135.5      gallons: 1322.5832,84423,64972.0%      
              701.568       
2015 avg961.8 874.2          949.2pace101,714avg 2015 grind   
 14.74 13.40          0.949       
                      

1/2/2015949 789 0 18,84550% 52.7 369  841.7100,362  88098.96%
1/9/2015978 815 0 20,22953% -34.7 -243  780.3103,429  88759.18%
>>>1/16/2015979 837 0 20,38754% 119.4 836  956.4103,535  88519.46%
1/23/2015978 842 0 20,63154% 101.1 708  943.1103,429  90229.33%
1/30/2015948 830 0 20,98655% 67.3 4712,1411,637897.3100,256511,010 84429.83%

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

Cheers.



Edited by JonSCKs 1/21/2016 15:24
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