| Put together some cropland price predictions that I thought I would share. These come from a simplified model where many structural factors are held constant to likely values and one can simply use an estimation of average interest rate changes over the year and what average continuous corn CBOT futures prices will be* to read off the corresponding cropland price change prediction.** The black line divides conditions where prices increase by the end of this year vs decrease. Obviously I share this with no advisement of investment and with no warranty. Hope it is useful.
*There are some details on which interest rate and the particular continuous corn timeseries used, but I assure you they are reasonable.
**This is for average land in the West-Central cornbelt, and the prediction is less applicable for high/low quality and land farther away from that area.
(edited for spacing and a typo)
Edited by agavegoose 1/21/2016 14:55
 (2016Predictions.png)
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 2016Predictions.png (60KB - 160 downloads)
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Cropland Price Predictions for 2016
