Probably mostly normal cycle - but keep in mind you should define any fungible commodity as something which seeks it's cost of production +~IRR.   It has been a very long time since oil could even experience a normal correction which is the thesis.

  If most wells have CoP around $30/bbl, expect price around $31.50 plus freight plus risk premium.  I have no idea what CoP of oil is, on average.  Just expect a free market to seek it, though.