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Northwest Iowa | Brent Harris does a huge amount of work when putting out the newsletter but he isn't very clear. For those that want to learn Elliot Wave, Prechter and Frost's book is a place to start. In my view, the down move from 8.49 on the weekly and monthly continuation corn charts to the low on Oct 1 2014, is a completed 5 count down. This is the hard part of Elliot Wave (EW) as it is upside down from what the book talks about. 1 down (6.26 April 2013), 2 back up usually a strong retest (7.30 July 2013). Then wave 3 down which is the long one often in both price and time (4.06 Jan 2014). Then normally a consolidation or complex count-trend move for wave 4 (5.19 May 2014)with a final drive lower into wave 5 (3.18 Oct 2014). The down moves are 2.23, 3.24 and 2.01. The theory would say to expect 2 alike and one different. Wave 1 and 3 are similar. The wave 3 or middle leg is longer which is normal as well. The two corrective (countertrend) moves are similar as would be normal as well at 1.04 and 1.13. The initial down move then is complete. Elliot labels this large degree wave A. Each wave subdivides but lets leave that alone for now. The next anticipated move is Wave B to correct the 5.25 down-move. Looking at normal expectations, This move should be 50 or 62% back up. That is around 5.80. Seems impossible, I know. This move should also take about as long as the total down move to date or 25 months. That targets late fall of 2016, maybe near election time? Fundamentally, there will need to be some combination of weather issues to take away from production. I doubt there will be something like 1983 when we had the payment in kind (PIK)program. We'll likely need some $ changes as well so that exports pick up. The next high will be wave B so that leaves wave Wave C(down). Starting sometime in late 2016/early2017. Wave C in the perfect EW world is the same as Wave A. I have my doubts that we go that low but let's say it will be unpleasant. I suppose I have oversimplified this but that is where you start. I can see the flames already, but I'm just trying to share some ideas. Have a great day. | |
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