Hi David
Good comments from JP and Fry. I really cant add much -but since You named me in the subject line - felt I should answer something. It's the expiration-rollover-gap thingy that got me more interested in using the continuation charts. Corn nearby rolls to next trading contract 5 times in a year. Beans nearby roll 7 times/yr. Strange things happen during expiration time ( more so in beans) as Big Traders sometimes try to teach others a lesson if they are on the wrong side. I dont think these last few days fun activity have much to do in the overall picture of Beans. Thats why I think it should be ignored in overall mMkt analysis. Fry's charts are prime example - 1st chart is continous chart showing the expiration of Jan Beans on Wed at 896.0 Then the Rollover - plotting March contract opening at 879.0n the following day - Thurs . I'll detail this to help newby's understand better - using BarChart settings. ( I wish someone would have done this for me years ago) Barchart setting to Jan Daily Contract ZSF16 showing last Bar clo at 896 on Jan 14
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZSf16&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=O&sd=&ed=&size=L&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=2&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&po=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=SMA%2855%2C%29%3BSMA%28100%2C%29%3BSMA%28200%2C%29%3BSTOSL%2814%2C3%2C16711680%2C153%29%3BSMACD%2812%2C26%2C9%2C16737792%2C10053375%2C13421721%29%3BSRSI%2814%2C6710886%2C20%2C255%2C16711680%29&chartindicator_7_code=SMA&chartindicator_7_param_0=55&chartindicator_7_param_1=&chartindicator_8_code=SMA&chartindicator_8_param_0=100&chartindicator_8_param_1=&chartindicator_9_code=SMA&chartindicator_9_param_0=200&chartindicator_9_param_1=&chartindicator_10_code=STOSL&chartindicator_10_param_0=14&chartindicator_10_param_1=3&chartindicator_10_param_2=16711680&chartindicator_10_param_3=153&chartindicator_11_code=SMACD&chartindicator_11_param_0=12&chartindicator_11_param_1=26&chartindicator_11_param_2=9&chartindicator_11_param_3=16737792&chartindicator_11_param_4=10053375&chartindicator_11_param_5=13421721&chartindicator_12_code=SRSI&chartindicator_12_param_0=14&chartindicator_12_param_1=6710886&chartindicator_12_param_2=20&chartindicator_12_param_3=255&chartindicator_12_param_4=16711680&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate= Barchart setting to Mar Daily Contract ZSH16 showing open at 882.25 on Jan 15
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZSH16&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=O&sd=&ed=&size=L&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=2&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&po=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=SMA%2855%2C%29%3BSMA%28100%2C%29%3BSMA%28200%2C%29%3BSTOSL%2814%2C3%2C16711680%2C153%29%3BSMACD%2812%2C26%2C9%2C16737792%2C10053375%2C13421721%29%3BSRSI%2814%2C6710886%2C20%2C255%2C16711680%29&chartindicator_7_code=SMA&chartindicator_7_param_0=55&chartindicator_7_param_1=&chartindicator_8_code=SMA&chartindicator_8_param_0=100&chartindicator_8_param_1=&chartindicator_9_code=SMA&chartindicator_9_param_0=200&chartindicator_9_param_1=&chartindicator_10_code=STOSL&chartindicator_10_param_0=14&chartindicator_10_param_1=3&chartindicator_10_param_2=16711680&chartindicator_10_param_3=153&chartindicator_11_code=SMACD&chartindicator_11_param_0=12&chartindicator_11_param_1=26&chartindicator_11_param_2=9&chartindicator_11_param_3=16737792&chartindicator_11_param_4=10053375&chartindicator_11_param_5=13421721&chartindicator_12_code=SRSI&chartindicator_12_param_0=14&chartindicator_12_param_1=6710886&chartindicator_12_param_2=20&chartindicator_12_param_3=255&chartindicator_12_param_4=16711680&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate= At this point - it appears nothing has really changed in the overall pictire of beans
Now - looking at the continous contract of Beans - Barchart setting to Daily Nearest ZSH16 shows this gap - and a negative looking picture - at least till the Gap gets filled. http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZSH16&style=technical&template=&p=DN&d=O&sd=&ed=&size=L&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&po=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=SMA%2855%2C%29%3BSMA%28100%2C%29%3BSMA%28200%2C%29%3BSTOSL%2814%2C3%2C16711680%2C153%29%3BSMACD%2812%2C26%2C9%2C16737792%2C10053375%2C13421721%29%3BSRSI%2814%2C6710886%2C20%2C255%2C16711680%29&chartindicator_9_code=SMA&chartindicator_9_param_0=55&chartindicator_9_param_1=&chartindicator_10_code=SMA&chartindicator_10_param_0=100&chartindicator_10_param_1=&chartindicator_11_code=SMA&chartindicator_11_param_0=200&chartindicator_11_param_1=&chartindicator_12_code=STOSL&chartindicator_12_param_0=14&chartindicator_12_param_1=3&chartindicator_12_param_2=16711680&chartindicator_12_param_3=153&chartindicator_14_code=SMACD&chartindicator_14_param_0=12&chartindicator_14_param_1=26&chartindicator_14_param_2=9&chartindicator_14_param_3=16737792&chartindicator_14_param_4=10053375&chartindicator_14_param_5=13421721&chartindicator_15_code=SRSI&chartindicator_15_param_0=14&chartindicator_15_param_1=6710886&chartindicator_15_param_2=20&chartindicator_15_param_3=255&chartindicator_15_param_4=16711680&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate= Is the above chart picture important?? This is the continuation chart charting the March contract from year to year
Barchart setting to Daily Continuation for ZSH16 http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZSH16&style=technical&template=&p=DC&d=O&sd=&ed=&size=L&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&po=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=SMA%2855%2C%29%3BSMA%28100%2C%29%3BSMA%28200%2C%29%3BSTOSL%2814%2C3%2C16711680%2C153%29%3BSMACD%2812%2C26%2C9%2C16737792%2C10053375%2C13421721%29%3BSRSI%2814%2C6710886%2C20%2C255%2C16711680%29&chartindicator_7_code=SMA&chartindicator_7_param_0=55&chartindicator_7_param_1=&chartindicator_8_code=SMA&chartindicator_8_param_0=100&chartindicator_8_param_1=&chartindicator_9_code=SMA&chartindicator_9_param_0=200&chartindicator_9_param_1=&chartindicator_10_code=STOSL&chartindicator_10_param_0=14&chartindicator_10_param_1=3&chartindicator_10_param_2=16711680&chartindicator_10_param_3=153&chartindicator_11_code=SMACD&chartindicator_11_param_0=12&chartindicator_11_param_1=26&chartindicator_11_param_2=9&chartindicator_11_param_3=16737792&chartindicator_11_param_4=10053375&chartindicator_11_param_5=13421721&chartindicator_12_code=SRSI&chartindicator_12_param_0=14&chartindicator_12_param_1=6710886&chartindicator_12_param_2=20&chartindicator_12_param_3=255&chartindicator_12_param_4=16711680&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate= I dont know which is the better one to use - I guess each may have merit.
I prefer to use a continous chart and limit the rollover to once a year. For instance - the March continous charts March 2015 til it expires - then It rolls to March 2016 till it expires. I do change contracts during the year to more active current month. For instance when We get closer to March expiration - I will change to May or July. Now thats all I got to say. It really wasn't muct - it just took a lot of words to say it. jeesh - I'm starting to sound more like SAT every day. ( just kidding ya SAT - as you been catching it lately) lol |