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Question? Blu, Fry others
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blu
Posted 1/18/2016 07:31 (#5044169 - in reply to #5043648)
Subject: RE: Question? Blu, Fry others




Hi David

Good comments from JP and Fry. I really cant add much -but
since You named me in the subject line - felt I should answer something.

It's the expiration-rollover-gap thingy that got me more interested
in using the continuation charts.

Corn nearby rolls to next trading contract 5 times in a year.
Beans nearby roll 7 times/yr.

Strange things happen during expiration time ( more so in beans)
as Big Traders sometimes try  to teach others a lesson if they are on the wrong side.
I dont think these last few days fun activity have much to do in the overall picture of Beans.
Thats why I think it should be ignored in overall mMkt analysis.

Fry's charts are prime example -
1st chart is continous chart showing the expiration of Jan Beans on Wed at 896.0
Then  the Rollover - plotting  March contract opening  at 879.0n the following day - Thurs .

I'll detail this to help newby's understand better - using BarChart settings.
( I wish someone would have done this for me years ago)


Barchart setting to Jan  Daily Contract ZSF16 showing last Bar clo at 896 on Jan 14

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZSf16&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=O&sd=&ed=&size=L&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=2&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&po=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=SMA%2855%2C%29%3BSMA%28100%2C%29%3BSMA%28200%2C%29%3BSTOSL%2814%2C3%2C16711680%2C153%29%3BSMACD%2812%2C26%2C9%2C16737792%2C10053375%2C13421721%29%3BSRSI%2814%2C6710886%2C20%2C255%2C16711680%29&chartindicator_7_code=SMA&chartindicator_7_param_0=55&chartindicator_7_param_1=&chartindicator_8_code=SMA&chartindicator_8_param_0=100&chartindicator_8_param_1=&chartindicator_9_code=SMA&chartindicator_9_param_0=200&chartindicator_9_param_1=&chartindicator_10_code=STOSL&chartindicator_10_param_0=14&chartindicator_10_param_1=3&chartindicator_10_param_2=16711680&chartindicator_10_param_3=153&chartindicator_11_code=SMACD&chartindicator_11_param_0=12&chartindicator_11_param_1=26&chartindicator_11_param_2=9&chartindicator_11_param_3=16737792&chartindicator_11_param_4=10053375&chartindicator_11_param_5=13421721&chartindicator_12_code=SRSI&chartindicator_12_param_0=14&chartindicator_12_param_1=6710886&chartindicator_12_param_2=20&chartindicator_12_param_3=255&chartindicator_12_param_4=16711680&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=


Barchart setting to Mar   Daily Contract ZSH16 showing open at 882.25 on Jan 15

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZSH16&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=O&sd=&ed=&size=L&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=2&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&po=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=SMA%2855%2C%29%3BSMA%28100%2C%29%3BSMA%28200%2C%29%3BSTOSL%2814%2C3%2C16711680%2C153%29%3BSMACD%2812%2C26%2C9%2C16737792%2C10053375%2C13421721%29%3BSRSI%2814%2C6710886%2C20%2C255%2C16711680%29&chartindicator_7_code=SMA&chartindicator_7_param_0=55&chartindicator_7_param_1=&chartindicator_8_code=SMA&chartindicator_8_param_0=100&chartindicator_8_param_1=&chartindicator_9_code=SMA&chartindicator_9_param_0=200&chartindicator_9_param_1=&chartindicator_10_code=STOSL&chartindicator_10_param_0=14&chartindicator_10_param_1=3&chartindicator_10_param_2=16711680&chartindicator_10_param_3=153&chartindicator_11_code=SMACD&chartindicator_11_param_0=12&chartindicator_11_param_1=26&chartindicator_11_param_2=9&chartindicator_11_param_3=16737792&chartindicator_11_param_4=10053375&chartindicator_11_param_5=13421721&chartindicator_12_code=SRSI&chartindicator_12_param_0=14&chartindicator_12_param_1=6710886&chartindicator_12_param_2=20&chartindicator_12_param_3=255&chartindicator_12_param_4=16711680&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=


At this point - it appears nothing has really changed in the overall pictire of beans

Now - looking at the continous contract of Beans  -

Barchart setting to Daily Nearest ZSH16 shows this  gap - and a negative looking picture -
at least till the Gap gets filled.

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZSH16&style=technical&template=&p=DN&d=O&sd=&ed=&size=L&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&po=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=SMA%2855%2C%29%3BSMA%28100%2C%29%3BSMA%28200%2C%29%3BSTOSL%2814%2C3%2C16711680%2C153%29%3BSMACD%2812%2C26%2C9%2C16737792%2C10053375%2C13421721%29%3BSRSI%2814%2C6710886%2C20%2C255%2C16711680%29&chartindicator_9_code=SMA&chartindicator_9_param_0=55&chartindicator_9_param_1=&chartindicator_10_code=SMA&chartindicator_10_param_0=100&chartindicator_10_param_1=&chartindicator_11_code=SMA&chartindicator_11_param_0=200&chartindicator_11_param_1=&chartindicator_12_code=STOSL&chartindicator_12_param_0=14&chartindicator_12_param_1=3&chartindicator_12_param_2=16711680&chartindicator_12_param_3=153&chartindicator_14_code=SMACD&chartindicator_14_param_0=12&chartindicator_14_param_1=26&chartindicator_14_param_2=9&chartindicator_14_param_3=16737792&chartindicator_14_param_4=10053375&chartindicator_14_param_5=13421721&chartindicator_15_code=SRSI&chartindicator_15_param_0=14&chartindicator_15_param_1=6710886&chartindicator_15_param_2=20&chartindicator_15_param_3=255&chartindicator_15_param_4=16711680&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=

Is the above chart picture important??


This is the continuation chart charting the March contract from year to year

Barchart setting to Daily Continuation for  ZSH16

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZSH16&style=technical&template=&p=DC&d=O&sd=&ed=&size=L&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&po=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=SMA%2855%2C%29%3BSMA%28100%2C%29%3BSMA%28200%2C%29%3BSTOSL%2814%2C3%2C16711680%2C153%29%3BSMACD%2812%2C26%2C9%2C16737792%2C10053375%2C13421721%29%3BSRSI%2814%2C6710886%2C20%2C255%2C16711680%29&chartindicator_7_code=SMA&chartindicator_7_param_0=55&chartindicator_7_param_1=&chartindicator_8_code=SMA&chartindicator_8_param_0=100&chartindicator_8_param_1=&chartindicator_9_code=SMA&chartindicator_9_param_0=200&chartindicator_9_param_1=&chartindicator_10_code=STOSL&chartindicator_10_param_0=14&chartindicator_10_param_1=3&chartindicator_10_param_2=16711680&chartindicator_10_param_3=153&chartindicator_11_code=SMACD&chartindicator_11_param_0=12&chartindicator_11_param_1=26&chartindicator_11_param_2=9&chartindicator_11_param_3=16737792&chartindicator_11_param_4=10053375&chartindicator_11_param_5=13421721&chartindicator_12_code=SRSI&chartindicator_12_param_0=14&chartindicator_12_param_1=6710886&chartindicator_12_param_2=20&chartindicator_12_param_3=255&chartindicator_12_param_4=16711680&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=


I dont know which is the better one to use - I guess each may have merit.

 I prefer to use a continous chart and limit the rollover to once a year.
For instance  - the March continous charts March 2015 til it expires -
then It rolls to March 2016 till it expires.
I do change contracts during the year to more active current month.
For instance when We get closer to March expiration - I will change to May or July.

Now thats all I got to say. It really wasn't muct - it just took a lot of words to say it.

jeesh - I'm starting to sound more like SAT every day.

( just kidding ya SAT - as you been catching it lately)
lol

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