That seems like a pretty wordy way of saying "the basis will follow the spreads", but at least you are coming around ;0). Ray is right that the transition to new crop timeframe next summer is potentially pretty hazardous with the possibility of a tin can harvest.

 ;-)

Thought that you'd like that.. Ray not picking on you.. kudo's for you to represent..

Sat.. I updated my spreadsheet a year ago.. when I did it again yesterday I had to account for a 169 myn bushel reduction in Crop size by USDA all the way back to..  2013??  So evidently I'm not the only one who considers test weights..  aka clarification.. the stocks reports for ON FARM numbers are pretty round.. aka they are surveyed.. I thunk.. or guessed.. and they vary from year to year.. just like test weight does.. and farmer selling patterns etc..

oh and one other thing.. Q1 corn ethanol grind was 20 mny bushels higher vs last year.. yet they left the yearly number alone... Yearly pace could add another 150'ish to 200.. once the Sorghum runs out.. hmmm.. granted there's a lot of uncertainty in the energy sector right now.. so.. "fair enough."  Flip side.. export number seems pretty lofty still.. and if everyone holds on to inventory.. will make it tougher..

later.