|
Red River Valley | in March of 2004 beans hit $10.64 cents then by August of that year they were at $5.75 and did not take out the high until Dec of 2007
so the question for me was more about 2006 beans because holding them for 18 months would have gotten one into the late 2007 rally into early 2008 but had one sold the 2004 rally and taken the carry that would have been better than holding 2006 until Jan 2008 and paying storage.
which is why 2007 turned and was the year to grow it bin it and sell it which of course turned ugly in 2008
one also has to remember that in 2008 it was real hard to get sales made in the future years but could be done if one was willing to take the risk.
the 2006 corn year does become a very close call depending on what you assign to storage and was on of the very close calls of the data set.
Just remember that trending markets mostly have fits and starts VS a lineal fashion.
would things change on a % basis if you move back 2003 YES but then one has to pick a starting point and they change again if you go back 5 years | |
|
Just a quick post to correct some misinformation on RTK post below
