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| I was listening to a talk radio guy who had Larry Kudlow on. Larry made the comment that we're in a "correction" and it wasn't time to panic yet, BUT in the same breath he also said this is looking like the start of a deflationary recession. This is what I see as well -- I'm no expert, but it seems to me that this could very well be. So for people who know here's my question: we know that commodities such as oil, nat gas, crude are all being pulled from the ground, most of these are losing money, or will lose money if prices go lower -- so eventually production will slow to a profitable level and the lowest cost producer will set the price. Grain is much different, as our supply cannot be easily turned on or off, and we rely on weather to determine what the end price will be. Demand is somewhat elastic, but there will always be livestock and people to feed, but changes in diets can alter the amount of grain needed. Does this mean grain can decouple from other commodities? One thing in our favor is now there's so much money that flows into commodities and outta stocks, will this cause grains or other commodities to be priced higher in relation to where they should be? Currency values are also very interesting to watch -- what are the thoughts on the US dollar should we enter a recession, will it pull back sharply? or is it still the prettiest the room full of uglies?
Sorry for the many questions -- just a young guy wanting to pick some of your brains -- really enjoy reading some of the "economy" stuff that gets posted on here | |
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Economy
