| I've only been following this form for a couple of weeks.. the assumption is that the Non Commercials are Short while the Commercials are long.. but I added the Commercial/Merchant/Users to it.. and in many cases they are short also.. Take a looksee.. | Commitment of Traders | Short form | | 1/12/2016 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Combined | Non Commercial Positions | | | | | Producer/User/Merchant/Processor | | | | Positions | | | Long | | Short | | Net | | Net Bushels | | Long | | Short | | Net | | Net Bushels | | Bushels | SRW Wht | | 59,125 | | 132,400 | | -73,275 | | -366,375,000 | | 61258 | | 75056 | | -13,798 | | -68,990,000 | | -435,365,000 | | | 10,977 | | -13,514 | | 24,491 | | | | -17867 | | 552 | | -18,419 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | HRW Wht | | 31,764 | | 47,232 | | -15,468 | | -77,340,000 | | 65027 | | 69426 | | -4,399 | | -21,995,000 | | -99,335,000 | | | -1,151 | | -3,823 | | 2,672 | | | | -2552 | | 2195 | | -4,747 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | HRS Wht | | 3,212 | | 7,870 | | -4,658 | | -23,290,000 | | 44480 | | 44031 | | 449 | | 2,245,000 | | -21,045,000 | | | 120 | | -778 | | 898 | | | | 1993 | | 3169 | | -1,176 | | | | | | | | | | | | | -467,005,000 | | | | | | | | -88,740,000 | | -555,745,000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Corn | | 151,082 | | 346,420 | | -195,338 | | -976,690,000 | | 343889 | | 506196 | | -162,307 | | -811,535,000 | | -1,788,225,000 | | | -2,947 | | 23,641 | | -26,588 | | | | 12487 | | -19002 | | 31,489 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Soybeans | | 67,091 | | 112,276 | | -45,185 | | -225,925,000 | | 252684 | | 274555 | | -21,871 | | -109,355,000 | | -335,280,000 | | | 11,560 | | 13,013 | | -1,453 | | | | -5118 | | 21240 | | -26,358 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | -1,669,620,000 | | | | | | | | -1,009,630,000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | -2,679,250,000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Source: | http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/ag_sf.htm | | | | | | | | | | |
The Funds lightened up a little at 1.67 byn bushels.. while the Commercials are ALSO short a billion making the two groups combined short 2.68 billion bushels. Wow.. I'm amazed that the two combined are short half a billion bushels of wheat.. almost the entire Corn Carryout and 335 myn bushels of soybeans... So who is offsetting these positions? The Swap dealers are the big longs.. so who are they? from http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/alch56_commitment_traders_report.pdf The CFTC explains the new categories thus: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User: A “Producer/Merchant/Processor/User” is an entity that predominantly engages in the production, processing, packing or handling of a physical commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with those activities. Swap Dealer: A “swap dealer” is an entity that deals primarily in swaps for a commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge the risk associated with those swaps transactions. The swap dealer’s counterparties may be speculative traders, like hedge funds, or traditional commercial clients that are managing risk arising from their dealings in the physical commodity. Money Manager: A “money manager,” for the purpose of this report, is a registered commodity-trading advisor (CTA); a registered commodity pool operator (CPO); or an unregistered fund identified by CFTC. These traders are engaged in managing and conducting organised futures’ trading on behalf of clients. Other Reportables: This comprises every other reportable trader that is not placed into one of the other three categories. You can see that the Commercials reduced Long positions on this past week's SRW Wheat activity while the Funds reduced shorts.. In Corn, the Commercials reduced Short positions while the Funds took them/added to their positions.. And in the Beaners.. both entities added to their short positions.. I suspect that the fallout in the stock market yesterday prompted some funds to cover as they could have been losing $$$ in other markets.. but that would only be a guess on my part.. but seemed to fit the activity of the day. If the economy is reflected in the stock market.. do we go back to more quant easing? One other thing.. Iran exchanged.. people/hostages.. with the US before this big Sanctions relief deal... suspect that Iran is going to finally get the green light to start shipping their backlog of crude oil in the world market.. and this may be a target for some of the big Crude Oil Bears since the deal was announced last summer... again total speculation on my part.. but makes sense...???
Edited by JonSCKs 1/16/2016 17:34
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