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Red River Valley | the grow it, bin it, sell it claim by RTK and roaringtiger the other day
the claim by RTK and seconded by RT was that over the last 10 years only one paid to sell ahead and 6 paid to grow it bin it and then sell it, well here's a little reality and fact check.
going back 10 years on completed marketing cycles meaning that at least 18 months after harvest which would encompass the 2004 - 2014 crop years both corn and beans and allowing for a three years forward and 2 year carrying your crop in the bin the results that I have show the following
BEANS 2004,2005,2006 all years the contract high was hit before harvest with them being hit with sales in 2004,
In 2007 the high was hit after the crop was harvested with the peak coming spring of 2008
2008 and 2009 peak hit in July pf 2008
2010 and 2011 peak hit after harvest both hit in Aug 2011
2012, 2013, 2014 the peaks all hit before harvest 2012 and 2013 were hit in late Aug and early Sept. of 2012 and 2014 was then and maybe repeated May 2014
So the actual results are from 2004 to 2014 3 wins for the Grow it, Bin it, Sell it group and 7 wins for the sell ahead group and 2014 left with a few months to go before it finishes, but would need a $6-$7 rally to move it to the other side of the ledger
In CORN 2004 and 2005 highs were in May of 2004 before harvest
2006 and 2007 highs were it post harvest 2006 in Dec. of 06 and again in July of 2008, and 2007 in July of 2008
2008,2009,2010, all the high's were hit in July of 2008 before harvest
2011 highs in July of 2012 post harvest
2012,2013,2014 all hit before harvest with 2012 and 2013 both in July of 2012 and 2014 in July of 2012 and again May of 2013.
Again 2014 has some time to play out here but would need to rally over $3.00 from current levels to be a better GBS than sell forward play
So for corn we have 3 years were the Grow it, Bin it,Sell it, group was the winner and 8 years were forward contracting made you the winner
and as Roaringtiger put it " Its hard to argue with history and simple Logic " and I will add the FACTS "but I am sure somebody will try"
Now I understand we have different starting dates but even if you line up the starting dates at 2007 you have 2007, 2010 and 2011 as winners in the GBS crowd, and 08,09,12,13,14, winning with forward sales with 15 leaning hard that way
And for Corn you have 07, and 11, on the GBS side with 08,09,10,12,13,14 on the forward sales side with again 15 leaning way heavy to that side of the scorecard
so on the RTK scorecard with 07 being the starting date you have soybeans favoring the forward contract 6-3 and corn favoring the forwards 7-2
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Just a quick post to correct some misinformation on RTK post below
