No idea where it's going to end up Mac.  There are just way too many moving parts for me and my simple mind to come to any conclusion.  To me, every single thing what we could ever come up to support or reject a currencies demise will show up in price first - including everything you mentioned above.  It's all encompassing in the price formations and those price formations will continue to project price path forward.  We are currently on opposite sides of the USD currency rally.  Our stronger currency is hurting yours.  To me, this short term rally is only part of the larger rally that will occur in the USD. There are a few problems with the energy expressed and running to new highs isn't expected, but certainly a "normal" length pullback is conceivable.  It may seem short term, but I obviously have a different opinion with the conclusion that it won't be in the this decade.  One thing's for sure, since the early 2000's, the next shoe was going to drop - it's always been just around the corner.  If we could ask the old timers, they would probably tell you its always been that way.  I bought into these theories too.  They make total sense, especially for those that have a reasonable fiscal house of their own, and understand that there are things that you just can't do and have a decent outcome.  But, after becoming a student of price the last half decade or so, I have come to realize that while all these bad elements will come home to roost at some point, it won't do it until it's ready.  And this is where I take issue with the doom n gloom news agencies that have single-handedly cost more financial opportunities than another entities in history.  While they may end up right at some point, they have in fact delayed the fulfilling of their own prophecies by spreading them - ie . a bull market climbs a wall of worry.....These news agencies are the wall of worry and so it goes....

Take Care Mac!