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| Allendale estimates Winter Wheat Seedings at 48.787 million acres or 3.8 million more than 2007. We estimate 2008 production at 2.247 billion bu and 2008-09 end stocks at 312 million bushels, which compares to our present old crop stocks figure of 255 million bushels versus December estimates of 280 million bushels
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Looking at Corn, the talk on the CBOT floor is they are looking for USDA to reduce 2007 corn production. By viewing our estimates for the Friday USDA reports, Allendale is anticipating a smaller corn crop and has cut yield by 0.5 bushels per acre. This drops total production by 35 million bushels and with minor adjustments to usage; ending stocks are lowered by 50 million bushels. Bullish to corn are aggressive exports, weekly corn inspections and the lack of export competitors. South America will begin its harvest in Feb for Brazil, March for Argentina and initially apply pressure to US exports. Because of the early spring freeze; Argentina may have switched 247,000 corn acres over to soybeans. Bearish to corn are high feed costs for livestock and poultry, anemic export shipments and less than aggressive use of corn for ethanol production.
Allendale estimates quarterly corn stocks at 10.591 billion bushels, which compares to year earlier levels of 8.933 billion bushels. This level of stocks suggests usage of 27% versus the previous year's 29%. Total first quarter usage is estimated at 3.896 billion bushels, which is a record and compares to a three year average of 3.442 billion bushels and five year average of 3.301 billion bushels.
Allendale is Long from 4.50, key support they have at 4.57, but state corn is vulnerable to a sharp correction
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Allendale estimates the 2007/08 ending stocks figure for soybeans at 183 million bushels versus USDA's December estimate of 185 million bushels and 573 million bushels last year. If realized, this 183 million bushel ending stocks figure would be the tightest since 2003 when ending stocks were at 112 million bushels.
Allendale estimates World Ending stocks for soybeans at 47.3 million tonnes, which compares to last months 47.32 million tonnes. Last year world stocks stood at 61 million tonnes, this is a reduction of 23% from year to year. If realized, this 47.3 million tonnes compares to a five-year average of 48.2 million tonnes.
Finally, Allendale estimates Quarterly Soybean Stocks of 2.248 billion bushels, this compares to year earlier levels of 2.701 billion bushels. Allendale estimates quarterly usage of 29% versus year earlier levels of 26%. This translates into 925 million bushels used so far this marketing year and compares to 945 million bushels a year earlier, which just missed the 2003/04 record first quarter usage of 949 million bushels. If realized, this 925 million bushel usage figure compares to a three-year average of 901 million bushels and five-year average of 902 million bushels.
>>>>>>>>>>>>They have placed a buy order @ 12.40, risking 10 cents........on soybns
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Early thoughts.
