AgTalk Home
AgTalk Home
Search Forums | Classifieds (19) | Skins | Language
You are logged in as a guest. ( logon | register )

Your long term, say 30 years, projections on ag's future
View previous thread :: View next thread
   Forums List -> Market TalkMessage format
 
jonas grumby
Posted 11/19/2012 09:44 (#2705704 - in reply to #2705667)
Subject: Re: Your long term, say 30 years, projections on ag's future


Northern Illinois		I live in north central Illinois so my point of reference will be here.

Think Walmart here in the US. 30-40 years ago there was a hardware store and a grocery store in most every town. Now there are a couple Walmarts 20-30 miles away and only the larger towns have a grocery store or a hardware store. We farmers today are very likely (imo) to be that hardware store owner in a small town 30 years ago.

Look at implement dealers. 30 years ago when I started farming I could drive 25 miles and be at 4 different JD dealerships and they were all owned by a sole propreetor. Now AHW controls has most of the entire east side of the state.

Look at your grain buyer. 30 years ago most every little town had a grain elevator. Now if there is a grain elevator it is very likely part of a larger group of elevators.

30 years ago many farms included pigs, cattle and chickens. Today there is not a pig or chicken in the township in which I live and there is only one cattle farm. I see grain production ag going the same direction as hog and chicken production.

I could go on and on as far as examples of how things have changed and become more corporate in the last 30 years. IMO we are foolish to think that production ag will be any different. GPS, driverless tractors and driverless nh3 hookups are the next step imo to this process.

When I started farming 30 years ago we had a 12 row planter and that was about as large as they got. There might have been 16 row planters but there were not 24 row planters. Now a 12 row planter is small. JD is only going to be making a limited number of their smallest model combine but I suspect that the smallest combine JD makes today is capable of doing more then the largest one they made 30 years ago. When I started farming 30 years ago many farmers were making a living farming 240-320 acres. Now someone likely needs a 1000 acres to have any chance. Soon that 1000 acre guy will be like the guy farming 240 thirty years ago and then the guy farming 5000 acres today will be like that guy farming 320 acres 30 years ago.

I suspect that when we are talking production in areas like Africa and Asia it may very well be Monsanto or JD or ??? doing the farming because if they dont need drivers what is the need for skilled labor. I just think the 3's are going to get to big for the individual farmer to compete.

I may not be bullish the individual farmer but I am very bullish the ownership of land as of today but that may change if we get to a Walmart type production system as they may say I will pay "x" for rent and if you don't like it tough because there will be no other bidders.

Edited by jonas grumby 11/19/2012 09:51
Top of the page Bottom of the page


Jump to forum :
Search this forum
Printer friendly version
E-mail a link to this thread

(Delete cookies)