First off here's the exec summary.. ( https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/Secretary_Briefing.pdf )

The Big downer on Wheat was the World increase in ending stocks.. (although a big chunk of it is in China.. ??)  The things they did on the US balance sheet which makes me go hmmm.. are.. 

1)They cut US Feed and Residual error by 30 myn bushels yoy.. (BS!!  Cash Wheat prices are lower than Corn here..)
2) They have Imports.. (primarily from Canada..  NAFTA..??) up 30 myn yoy.. (again BS!!  Kind of like their build in US Soybean stocks.. then revise lower..)

Those two paper changes add up to 60 myn in now you see it.. now you don't stocks additions.. which we lowered the carryout in the US.. 220 myn on the lowered acreage and the drought.. add these paper changes in and carryout goes down yoy almost 300 myn.

Given the VERY SLOW pace of fall plantings.. coupled with the low wheat prices.. US acreage will probably fall AGAIN another .. 2..3..4 myn acres..

So.. NEXT YEAR.. we're looking at US carryout around 700'ish myn bushels.. somewhat snuggish..

It is CLEAR that they want to push acreage INTO Soybeans..

They are forecasting a LOWER Brazilian crop..??
In spite of the US Adding 1.7 BILLION bushels to Soybean production since 2007.. 2007 2.7 byn.. to 2017 4.4 byn..  World Soybean stocks fell.. 1.5 mmt's between the Sept and October report.. and although they grew yoy.. 1.1 mmt's.. Usage is forecast higher by 11.1 mmt's..

How did the US increase acreage?

North Dakota Harvested Acreage.. 1.11 myn acres added 5.99 to 7.1 myn.. but the yield fell from 41.5 to 36 as more marginal acres were added.. (and the drought)
Kansas 1.09 myn acres.. 4.01 to 5.1.. and the yield fell on these marginal acres from 48 to 41 bushels.. (which i posted about last spring.. )
South Dakota 0.44 myn 5.170 to 5.610 and the yield fell from 49.5 to 45

Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska all added another 0.5 myn each in higher yields.. but again a good chunk of the expansion IS COMING from DRYLAND WHEAT GROUND..

specifically Kansas at 41 bushel beans.. some are coming out of the field at mid 20's.. some mid 30's and some over 40 here.. and yes.. there's a beau coup amount of it!!  but this is a year where it mostly.. worked.. we had RAIN!!

Given the poor dryland corn yields here.. some whole farms in the 40's here.. I suspect that we will see more of a switch from Corn (and wheat) to beans.. for 2018.. but again it will be VARIABLE.. good 40+.. to poor 15 bushels beans.

Frankly given that A LOT of dryland beans are still out there (it rained off and on here this weekend..) I can see a further reduction in yields going forward.

Now the focus turns to South American Weather..