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South Central Iowa | The answer is 2016. It is actually July 19, 2016, so one week later than this latest for this year.
I am driving around checking fields and pollination. I want to be bullish as anyone. But we need to keep in mind that as far as soil dryness, we are in an almost exact replica as last year. Worse in the Dakotas, but better in Ohio/Michigan.
We are sort of dry in my area, depending on the field. What amazes me is when I dig 2" under the soil, it is moist and I can make ribbons. Since our little shower a couple days ago, I don't have to dig down 2" even. We all buy drought tolerant hybrids anymore. Are these conditions, a generally moist soil profile and 50-75%+ of normal precipitation exactly what they are made for?
I have been over in WC Iowa, SW Iowa, and of course my area in the South Cental. The corn looks good in all those areas. Of the 9 Iowa crop districts, those are probably 6, 7, and 9th ranked respectively. I don't see us dragging much down on yield.
I know we want to be bullish and find a reason for higher prices. We will get them eventually. It may be yet this year. But they have a good 1-2" rain forecast for the Northern 1/2 of Iowa and Southern Minnesota for middle of next week. That part of Iowa along with SESD is about the only part of the prime corn belt that has not received an 1"+ of rain in the past week. That could be a headwind.
It hasn't been mentioned, but we made a downside key reversal for the week in corn. I lost it in the positive price action Friday. That is not a good sign. Maybe we can see more rally off these dryer forecasts. But we did have two solid weeks of below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures forecast in the 8-14 from the end of June until July 12. Those could only move us up 25c or so. I am just suggesting caution here near term. We peaked on July 14 in 2015 and in June last year. It is getting late for a weather rally, and we may go lower before higher.
But to mention the corn crop in SCIA for your reference. This field is one of mine. It has a 36 CSR. It is very poor compared to most of Iowa. It has had 6" of rain in the past 60 days, it is in one of the dryer areas of the state. I want to stress, this is not normal Iowa ground. All the ears are 18 round and 40+ long. The soil is still moist below. This field is in D1 moderate drought.
I want to be bullish too. But it might not be a bad idea to do something on the downside. $3.70 short dated September expiration puts are only 6c. If we drop 50c here near-term, those will be worth 30c+. If we go to $4.50 again, it's like you only got $4.44. Maybe something to consider.
Those pictures:
Edited by Conan the Farmer 7/15/2017 14:04
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Point of the Drought Game
